Whoa, Nelly! Ask and ye shall receive...I was just sent a copy of the June report from the Massachusetts Health Connector, and there's some fasinating healthcare data nerd stuff included.
I've pasted screen shots of every page of the report below (and there's a link to the PDF version at the bottom), but here's the main takeaways:
Effectuated QHPs have reached nearly 166,000...a whopping 40,520 higher than at the end of Open Enrollment!
While the national effectuation number is likely only 2% or so higher today than it was in March (likely 10.3 - 10.4 million vs. 10.2 million), in Massachusetts it's 32% higher. There's two main reasons for this, both connected to "ConnectorCare", which is unique to Massachusetts. ConnectorCare consists of the same low-end Qualified Health Plans that anyone can purchase (ie, they're still counted as QHPs in the national tally), except that in addition to the federal Advanced Premium Tax Credits (APTC), enrollees in ConnectorCare also receive additional state-based financial assistance, making them even more attractive to enrollees. In addition, however, unlike "normal" APTC or Full Price QHPs, which are limited to the official open enrollment period for most people, ConnectorCare enrollment, like Medicaid/CHIP, is open year round. That makes a dramatic difference, as you can see below; over 85% of the net QHP enrollment increase since March is thanks to ConnectorCare additions.
In addition, MA is the only state I know of which actively reports their attrition numbers--that is, so far this year they've had 13,635 people drop their QHP policies, meaning a total of 179,557 people have selected a plan and paid at least their first monthly premium.
Assuming a 90% payment rate (confirmed for Massachusetts back in April), this also suggests that the cumulative QHP selection total should be roughly 200,000 people to date, which is only significant to me and The Graph.
When you add the MA factor to the other state-level numbers I've received from Washington State, Colorado and Maryland, this is very strong evidence that the current effectuated number as of July nationally is more like 10.4 million vs. the 10.3 million I've been assuming.
But wait, there's more! Look below and you'll see a whole mess of pie charts, bar charts and line charts, breaking out everything from Metal Level selections and Market Share by Provider to SHOP enrollments (5,247 lives covered as of July 1st) and even Dental Plans!
So far there have been two comprehensive post-Open Enrollment Period reports released. The first was for Washington State, posted a couple of weeks ago; the second was for Massachusetts, posted last week. While both reports were chock full of all sorts of data-nuggety goodness, including updated paid QHP numbers, neither one included one crucial number: How many total QHP selections there have been in each state since Open Enrollment ended in February.
The Massachusetts Health Connector board held their monthly meeting today, which included an updated enrollment report which is chock-full of all sorts of data-nerd charts and graphs; a bonanza for folks like myself. Best of all, it runs all the way through 3/31, making the the most up-to-date report I have for any state at the moment.
We're in a bit of an in-between phase this week. Open Enrollment is officially over, and the Tax Season special enrollment period doesn't start until Sunday in most states.
However, the Massachusetts Health Connector has provided me with a handy report which gives some interesting drill-down data. Most of it is stuff I don't really track anyway, but some of it I do and the rest may be of interest to some. I'm only focusing on a few items, the PDF itself has a bunch more:
This isn't an exact apples-to-apples comparison, since the Massachusetts number includes the "overtime" extension period while the other 5 states only run through 2/15/15, but I thought it would be useful to see how the 6 exchanges which had widespread technical issues last year fared this time around. Obviously other states like Washington and California had some snafus, but these are the ones which were seriously hosed last year to the point of requiring massive overhauls or which were completely scrapped in favor of a new platform (I'm not including HC.gov itself here since everyone already knows what massive technical improvements they've made).
The chart below refers specifically to QHP selections only (whether paid or not), and compares the 2015 open enrollment period (11/15/14 - 2/15/15...or 2/26 in the case of MA) against the 2014 open enrollment period (10/1/13 - 4/19/14). I've also included some notes for context.
As I noted earlier, I've been expecting final #OE2 numbers from at least two states, Massachusetts & Minnesota. MA has just come through with an extremely detailed report.
In addition, they've given me a partial answer to my earlier question: Yes, they do plan on releasing off-season enrollment data at least monthly (via their board meetings), and possibly weekly (I'm guessing daily would be too much to ask during the off-season). So, I can count on off-season data from at least 1 state...49+DC to go...
They also said that they don't know about a Tax Season Special Enrollment Period yet, and did not have any SHOP data or Medicaid expansion-vs-woodworker data yet.
Finally, one interesting MA-specific quirk: "ConnectorCare" enrollees...which are QHP enrollees but are heavily subsidized by the state as well (I think this is sort of like Arkansas' Medicaid "private option"?)...can be enrolled in year-round. This could be significant during the off-season, espeically since this makes up 64% of the total QHP number to date.
With that, in the end, Massachusetts final official numbers are:
It's important to stress that this is not the final enrollment report for Massachusetts; it's the final daily report, which only includes the number of people determined eligible to purchase a private policy (Medicaid enrollees, however, are instant-activation; the number listed here is the number actually enrolled as of that day).
For most of the open enrollment period, QHP selections were running around 45-50% of the total QHP determinations; the other half are people who hadn't actually completed the process or who accidentally submitted 2 applications or whatever.
However, for the final week, it's pretty safe to assume that anyone who bothered to create an account, fill out their info and submit their application was pretty likely to actually put a policy in their shopping cart and check out (as well as paying their first premium on the spot), since yesterday was the (extended) deadline to do so. Therefore, it's a pretty safe bet that all 2,816 of those listed below (of the 7,057 total, which also includes MassHealth), at a minimum, can be added to the total.
On Friday, the MA Health Connector confirmed 134,000 QHP selections out of 237,000 people determined eligible for QHPs as of 2/18. Since then they've added another 6,614 QHP determinations.
For most of the 2015 open enrollment period, the number of people actually selecting a plan has hovered between 45-50% of the total determinations. However, as of last Thursday it had shot up to over 56%, and given that today is the final day to enroll for most people, it's a pretty safe bet that anyone who has bothered going through the trouble of creating an account, logging in, plugging in all of their info and submitting an application is also going to complete the process by actually checking out a policy (and presumably paying their first premium, since today's the deadline for that as well).
Therefore, I'm pretty sure that the total is well above 140K by now, and likely somewhat higher than that (since that would still leave another 103,600 people who had previously submitted an application but not completed the process as well).
Here we go...I was actually pretty much dead-on target with MA this week; 134,037 QHP selections, of which 108,168 have paid their first premium (81%). Again, remember that something like 25% of these folks aren't starting coverage until March 1st, so their payments aren't due until Monday night, so the payment rate is fine for the moment.
In addition, Massachusetts has extended their full enrollment period out through Monday, there will still be new folks who submit an application over the next 4 days. On top of that, there's potentiallyanother 103,000 approved applications already waiting for people to pull the trigger (6,707 of whom already have a plan in their shopping cart waiting to check out). Obviously not all of these will follow through, but if they did, that would shoot MA's total up to nearly 237K.
The numbers are starting to quetly ramp up again as we approach the MA Health Connector's extended enrollment deadline (February 23rd): 1,247 QHP determinations on Monday; 1,678 on Tuesday and 2,366 yesterday. Assuming at least 70% of these went on to actually enroll (I can't imagine it'd be any lower than that at this point...who would bother applying this late in the game if they don't plan on following through??), actual QHP selections should be up to 132.5K or higher at this point.
Medicaid in Massachusetts is now up to over 260,000.
