END OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD (42 states)

Time: D H M S

New Mexico: Approved rate hikes: ~30% w/full sabotage, ~15% without

Back in July, I had originally estimated the requested rate increases for New Mexico to average roughly 24.2% with partial Trump Administration sabotage or 37.2% with full sabotage (no CSR payments, full mandate enforcement threat). However, figuring out NM's approved rate hikes is proving to be frustrating.

On the one hand, they have a handy database lookup tool right there on the NM Insurance Dept. website, and they even have the actual premium amount listings for every plan from every carrier in every rating area available. Unfortunately, the premium listings don't give a year over year comparison (or an average percent increase), and the database tool seems not to have been fully updated as of this writing, making it kind of useless. I have some info for a couple of the individual carriers but even that's a bit confusing.

The closest thing I have to hard numbers so far is this quote from state insurance commissioner John Franchini from a NY Times article about the rate hikes next year:

We’re all pricing up for it,” said Dr. Martin Hickey, the chief executive of New Mexico Health Connections, one of the few remaining insurance start-ups created by the federal law. New Mexico Health Connections recently expanded an existing partnership with Evolent Health, a public company, which will provide additional capital.

In New Mexico, the average rate increase for plans sold on the state marketplace is about 30 percent. “Half of that increase is due to the uncertainty in Washington and the inability to lead,” said John G. Franchini, the state insurance regulator. The four insurers selling policies in the state marketplace are offering more types of plans.

OK, "about 30%" will have to do for now, of which "half" (15%) is due to "uncertainty in DC/inability to lead". Given how consistent this is with the other 22 states I've locked in so far, for the moment I'll break that out as perhaps 12 points to cover CSR uncertainty and another 3 points for the mandate enforcement threat.