(near) Final OE4 Tally: 12.24M QHPs (13.0M with BHPs added).
2019 OPEN ENROLLMENT ENDS (most states)
Time: D H M S
The table below is a slightly-modified version of the one I've been using for my "Trump Sabotage Effect" post. This version ignores all of that and simply presents all 50 states (+DC) together.
A few days ago I assumed the grand total would come in between 12.3 - 12.4 million, but I was misreading California's total based on their previous report which had made it look like they would break 1.6 million. Instead, they came in 44K below that mark, so the national total now stands at exactly 12,227,442 QHP selections, or 3.6% below 2016's final total. There's only 2 states missing data now: Minnesota and Vermont.
Vermont will likely only end up tacking on another 1,000 or so to their current 29K tally. Minnesota (currently 106K as of January 10th), on the other hand, has a special situation. I'm guessing they added perhaps 5K - 10K during the final 3 weeks of the official Open Enrollment Period which ended on 1/31/17...but they also added an 8-day Special Enrollment Period onto the end of that, which also features a 25% premium discount for enrollees who wouldn't normally qualify for federal tax credits (APTC).
Minnesota claims that there's around 125,000 people who are currently paying full price for individual policies, mostly via off-exchange policies, who are eligible for this discount. The catch is that in order to take advantage of it, they'd have to enroll through MNsure, the state ACA exchange. Other MN residents are also eligible to enroll via MNsure during this SEP (which ends in just a couple of hours) as well.
This means that Minnesota could, theoretically, more than double their QHP selection total to over 200,000 people. This is unlikely, but they are holding an actual press conference tomorrow morning specifically to discuss it, which is unusual, so who knows?
It's also worth noting that Basic Health Plan enrollments, which were a nominal number as long as MN was the only state participating in the BHP program, have exploded now that New York has joined in. When you include BHPs with the total, the national number of non-Medicaid ACA exchange enrollments is much higher...nearly 13.0 million, a mere 1.4% behind last year's grand total.
UPDATE 2/09/17: OK, Minnesota just announced their final enrollment tally; as I expected, they didn't add that much in the SEP (about 1,500 people), but they still close out OE4 with 114.6K enrollees, a whopping 37% increase over 2016.
This brings the grand total (not including perhaps 1,000 additional enrollees in Vermont) to exactly 12,235,500 QHP selections + 727,110 BHPs = 12,962,610 QHPs + BHPs combined.