Washington State: Here's the ~725,000 residents who could lose coverage by county

OK, it looks like I may end up doing this for a bunch of states after all.

 Again, some important caveats:

  • Unlike the Michigan and Texas spreadsheets, in this case, the "Total QHP Selections" for each county (column 4) is the number of effectuated enrollments as of September 2016, from the WA Health Benefit Exchange's enrollment report. For some reason the state-wide total is 328 people higher than shown in the report itself, but whatever.
  • The 69.2% APTC figure is state-wide as well; I don't have county-level data for APTC, so I just assumed 69.2% for each county.
  • The exchange has confirmed "over 180,000" QHP selections so far this year; I've slightly lowered my total OE4 projection from 220K to 209K, so the numbers below are slightly lower than they were a few days ago.
  • Assuming my normal 10% no-pays / 10% nominal-APTC, that leaves around 117,000 people who would almost certainly have to drop their private plans, plus another 608,000 confirmed to be enrolled in Medicaid via ACA expansion (found in this November 2016 state health dept. report), for a total of around 725,000 people who'd be screwed under a full repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

Here's a simplified version for easier reading/sharing: