Rhode island: 34.6K QHPs, 96% of my OE3 projection


Time: D H M S

Rhode Island, which already had one of the later deadlines in the first place, just bumped it out even later...all the way out through December 29th. However, having such a small population, Rhode Island's latest update still doesn't move the needle that much:


  • 34,627 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, paid and unpaid.
  • Nearly all of these individuals are current HSRI enrollees that have been autorenewed into a 2016 plan.
  • 4,462 of the 34,627 individuals have selected a plan for 2016 coverage, and are new to HSRI this year or returning after being enrolled with HSRI at some point during a prior year.
  • 27,124 of the 34,627 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, and have paid their first month’s premium.

SHOP ENROLLMENT As of January 2, 2016:

  • Small employer accounts created: 2,205
  • Small employer applications completed: 779
  • SHOP paid enrollment could not be updated this week due to a system limitation; the values below represent activity as of December 26, 2015.
  • Small employer enrollment (paid): 535
  • These employers represent 3,824 covered lives
  • 84% of small employers are enrolled in the Full Choice Model.
  • 90% SHOP renewal rate (2015 to date).

Aside from HealthCare.Gov itself, Rhode Island is the only state exchange to issue regular, weekly reports, making it easy to see the trend:

This is kind of interesting for two reasons. First, as you can see, the renewal number dropped each week for the first 7 weeks straight...because the exchange auto-renewed nearly all currently effectuated enrollees up front, then left it up to those individuals to "opt-out" if they wished (think "Columbia CD Club" for the older folks among us).

This resulted in a net loss of 606 renewals through Week 7...or 2.0% of all current enrollees, which is still an excellent retention rate.

However, something even more interesting happend in Weeks 8 & 9: As far as I can tell, 297 of those 606 people actively jumped back in after all, selecting a different (I presume) plan during what they thought was the final chance to do so for January coverage (the 12/29 extension wasn't announced until the original deadline, 12/23).

Meanwhile, after averaging just 439 new enrollees per week for the first 7 weeks, RI averaged 753 for each of the past two weeks.

My personal target for Rhode Island during OE3 is 36,000, which means they've reached 96.2% so far, and only need 1,373 more over the remaining 4 weeks to hit 100%. That's just 343 people per week, which should be doable.