Rhode island: 34.6K QHPs, 96% of my OE3 projection
2018 MIDTERM ELECTION
Time: D H M S
Rhode Island, which already had one of the later deadlines in the first place, just bumped it out even later...all the way out through December 29th. However, having such a small population, Rhode Island's latest update still doesn't move the needle that much:
INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY ENROLLMENT As of January 2, 2016:
- 34,627 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, paid and unpaid.
- Nearly all of these individuals are current HSRI enrollees that have been autorenewed into a 2016 plan.
- 4,462 of the 34,627 individuals have selected a plan for 2016 coverage, and are new to HSRI this year or returning after being enrolled with HSRI at some point during a prior year.
- 27,124 of the 34,627 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, and have paid their first month’s premium.
SHOP ENROLLMENT As of January 2, 2016:
- Small employer accounts created: 2,205
- Small employer applications completed: 779
- SHOP paid enrollment could not be updated this week due to a system limitation; the values below represent activity as of December 26, 2015.
- Small employer enrollment (paid): 535
- These employers represent 3,824 covered lives
- 84% of small employers are enrolled in the Full Choice Model.
- 90% SHOP renewal rate (2015 to date).
Aside from HealthCare.Gov itself, Rhode Island is the only state exchange to issue regular, weekly reports, making it easy to see the trend:
- Week 1: 30,374 renewals + 306 new = 30,680 total
- Week 2: 30,158 renewals + 585 new = 30,743 total
- Week 3: 30,092 renewals + 920 new = 31,012 total
- Week 4: 30,075 renewals + 1,163 new = 31,238 total
- Week 5: 29,908 renewals + 1,592 new = 31,500 total
- Week 6: 29,792 renewals + 2,189 new = 31,981 total
- Week 7: 29,768 renewals + 3,072 new = 32,840 total
- Week 8: 30,049 renewals + 3,847 new = 33,896 total
- Week 9: 30,165 renewals + 4,462 new = 34,627 total
This is kind of interesting for two reasons. First, as you can see, the renewal number dropped each week for the first 7 weeks straight...because the exchange auto-renewed nearly all currently effectuated enrollees up front, then left it up to those individuals to "opt-out" if they wished (think "Columbia CD Club" for the older folks among us).
This resulted in a net loss of 606 renewals through Week 7...or 2.0% of all current enrollees, which is still an excellent retention rate.
However, something even more interesting happend in Weeks 8 & 9: As far as I can tell, 297 of those 606 people actively jumped back in after all, selecting a different (I presume) plan during what they thought was the final chance to do so for January coverage (the 12/29 extension wasn't announced until the original deadline, 12/23).
Meanwhile, after averaging just 439 new enrollees per week for the first 7 weeks, RI averaged 753 for each of the past two weeks.
My personal target for Rhode Island during OE3 is 36,000, which means they've reached 96.2% so far, and only need 1,373 more over the remaining 4 weeks to hit 100%. That's just 343 people per week, which should be doable.