END OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD (42 states)

Time: D H M S

At least 38 states have broken HHS's 2015 target; 8 states have broken mine

OK, in addition to the hot-off-the-presses QHP selectoin numbers from the 37 states on HC.gov, I also have new estimated QHP selections from Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Washington State (oh, and Vermont as well) I say "estimated" because all 3 have slight caveats:

  • MA's number starts with the 119K confirmed as of last Thursday, then adds 50% of those determined eligible for QHPs since then (this has proven to be a pretty accurate rule of thumb to date).
  • RI actually provides the hard paid enrollment number, and even provides the total QHP selections...but only after having purged an estimated 1,800 or so who didn't pay by the due date. I'm glad that they're purging those folks, but it makes it a bit tricky since most other states are being based on their total selections, whether paid or not.
  • WA, like Rhode Island, provides the paid enrollment number, but doesn't provide total selections at all.

In the cases of RI & WA, I'm assuming that their hard paid number represents 88% of the total selections, which means their estimated QHP selections are 30.7K & 158K respectively.

OK, with that out of the way, here's where things stand (and remember, while most of the states are current through 2/06, a few of the State Exchange states haven't been updated since as far back as January 15th, so the picture could be quite different once those are updated):

As of today, with the latest data available, 38 states have now achieved either the HHS Dept's official target (30% higher than last year) or the individual state's official goal for 2015. 3 more states (Connecticut, Idaho and New Hampshire) are all within striking distance (ie, above 90% of that goal)...and Idaho's total hasn't been updated since January 17th.

Regarding the remaining 10 states, again, bear in mind that California hasn't been updated since 2/02, Colorado since 1/31 and New York since 2/03.

As for my personal targets, 8 states have now reached my original targets (Alaska, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Virginia and Wyoming). Another 16 states are above 90% of my target.

Finally, it's worth noting that Florida continues to kick major ass here, closing in on 1.4 million QHPs, and that's with the final 9 day rush still to come, while Texas has finally broken the 1 million mark.

Also note that the national confirmed QHP selection total (notwithstanding the MA/RI/WA estimates noted above) now stands at 10.37 million people.