Minnesota

2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

Time: D H M S

Not an official data update, but a nice catch from Louise Norris (the article is mainly about MNsure bumping out their enrollment deadline from 12/15 until 12/28):

As of Sunday, MNsure reported 26,532 sign-ups in private insurance policies through the exchange, including 18,595 new enrollees. The overall sign-up tally is up by more than 8,800 people in a five-day period, and the new enrollee figure is up by 6,415 people.

The tally is actually up 8,854 from MNsure's official report as of 12/08.

 

Thanks to Louise Norris for the heads up! MNsure held their monthly board meeting today as well, bringing their data right up to date through yesterday:

MNsure, the Minnesota ACA exchange which has gone through a lot of political ping-pong but is still standing, just released their first official 2016 #OE3 enrollment report:

OK, that's 6,864 QHP selections in 17 days, or 404 per day so far.

Minnesota only accounted for 0.5% of total QHP selections for 2015; extrapolated nationally at the same ratio, this would suggest around 1.37 million QHPs nationally through yesterday...which is a little lower than I'm currently estimating, but in the right ballpark.

OK, this isn't an official exchange update, and it only covers the "first hour after opening" on Sunday, but aside from Maryland, this is the only hard number I have so far; from Sunday's Wall St. Journal:

The federal exchange, HealthCare.gov, opened for business Sunday and will serve 38 states that rely on the marketplace. California’s state-run exchange is launching a 38-stop bus tour to get the word out about signing up and re-enrolling for coverage. Minnesota’s exchange had a couple hundred people sign up in the first hour after opening in the morning with no signs of any technology problems.

“We’re not expecting a whole lot of enrollment because it’s a 60 degree day on a Sunday, but so far so good,” said Shane Delaney, a spokesman for MNsure. The state exchange has hundreds of brokers and navigators geared up to assist consumers.

OK, that's a bare minimum of 200 QHP selections as of 10am (I'm guessing) on Nov. 1st in Minnesota. Duly noted.

This is basically a mini, state-level version of the "Shop Around & Save $51/month" press release from the HHS Dept. the other day.

MNsure, the Minnesota ACA exchange (which isn't included in the HC.gov analysis above, of course), just posted their own independent analysis of their 2016 rate offerings, and while the picture is pretty ugly for current enrollees who don't shop around, it's actually pretty damned good for those who do so:

When I updated my #OE3 state-level enrollment projections yesterday, I came across this official projection for #OE3 from Your Health Idaho's Sept. 18th board meeting minutes:

Rep. Rusche asked what our target enrollment is for this cycle and what barriers we see in making those targets. Mr. Kelly said the team is focused on the 80% goal of 92,000 as our enrollment target.Premium increases are a potential barrier. Net premium is a relatively small increase for most consumers, and each consumer will experience something different depending Page 5 of 14 on their plan, their location, their carrier, etc. We feel that while the premiums are increasing the relatively small net premium increase will mitigate this barrier to a large degree.

When I asked for clarification, they informed me that:

We currently have 86,659 effectuated enrollments with Your Health Idaho, as of September 15. The 92,000 would also refer to effectuated enrollments.

When I crunched the numbers for Minnesota's requested rate hikes, the results were pretty scary-looking; based on partial data, I estimated that the weighted average was something like a 37% overall requested increase:

Note that there were several crucial missing numbers: I didn't know the actual market share for several companies (I made a rough guess based on an estimate of the total missing enrollments), nor did I know what the requested increases were for Medica or PreferredOne, other than thinking that both were under 10%.

Just moments ago, however, the Minnesota Insurance Commissioner released the approved rate changes...and it's admittedly not pretty:

Individual Market

Minnesota's troubled MNsure exchange continues to quietly roll along through the off-season...

Cumulative QHP selections are up 1,093 since July 14 (42 per day), 2,937 since June 14 (52 per day), 5,059 since May 14 (58 per day) and 9,355 since the end of Open Enrollment on 2/21/15...or about 55 per day). Things have gradually slowed during the off-season, but not by much.

In just the last month they've also beefed up their Medicaid enrollment tally by over 16,800 and added 3,800 more to MinnesotaCare.

This report also gives some important additional stats, such as:

(sigh) Just 2 days ago there was excellent news on the 2016 rate increase front from the largest state (California, 4% weighted average) and one of the smaller ones (Maine, just 0.7%). Today brings the other side of the coin: Assuming the requested rate hikes are approved, Minnesota is looking at some pretty unpleasant increases next year:

A team of actuaries at the Minnesota Department of Commerce are currently scrutinizing the proposed rates that have been filed for 2016, and final rates will be announced on October 1. But for now, four MNsure’s individual market carriers have proposed the following rate changes for coverage effective January 1, 2016 (market share is as of the end of the 2015 open enrollment period):

Minnesota's troubled MNsure exchange continues to quietly roll along through the off-season...

Cumulative QHP selections are up 1,844 since June 14 (61 per day), 3,966 since May 14 (65 per day) and 8,262 since the end of Open Enrollment on 2/21/15...or about 58 per day; they've been pretty consistent during the off-season.

In just the last month they've also beefed up their Medicaid enrollment tally by nearly 17,800 and added over 3,500 to MinnesotaCare.

The Minnesota ACA exchange, MNsure, held their June board meeting yesterday and released some new enrollment numbers:

Cumulative QHP selections are up 2,122 since May 14, while Medicaid and MinnesotaCare are (combined) up 24,296 people in just a month.

Hot off the presses, the Minnesota ACA exchange, MNsure, just held their monthly board meeting and released some new enrollment numbers:

That precise 64,000 QHP number is up 2,126 since April 13, while Medicaid and MinnesotaCare are (combined) up a whopping 34,538 people, which is pretty impressive.

Hmmm...this is a bit surprising. The last report out of MNsure stated that they had added 1,405 QHP selections in the 15 days from 2/21 - 3/08, or 94 per day. I assumed that as today's tax filing deadline approached, this rate would increase as procrastinators scrambled to get their taxes filed under the wire. Instead, however, this is their latest report:

61,874 - 61,109 = Just 765 people enrolling over the 36 days since the prior report, or just 21 people per day. ACA exchange enrollments have actually slowed down substantially over the past month compared to the prior 2 weeks (which were after open enrollment ended). If this slowdown is representative of the whole country, then instead of several hundred thousand #ACATaxTime enrollees, we might be looking at fewer than 100K. However, this isn't nearly enough to draw any conclusions from yet.

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