dKos Archive

OK, let me get this out of the way up front: Yes, this is pretty self-serving of me, and kind of stupid, but it's something which has been bugging me for four years now, so I finally decided to do something about it.

As longtime readers know, ACA Signups didn't start out as a full website. Originally it consisted entirely of a Google Docs spreadsheet with a domain name pointing to it. The domain wasn't even ACASignups.net; I started out using ObamacareSignups.net, which still repoints to the site today. I changed it after the first month or so not because I have a problem with "Obamacare" but because ACASignups.net is simply faster to type out.

The ACA Signups project actually started out as a series of blog posts over at Daily Kos, one of the largest online progressive political sites in the country, where I had already been posting under the name Brainwrap on any number of issues for nearly a decade.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Sorry to disappoint everyone, but I've run into my first major data error (to my knowledge) in weeks.

Read the whole blog post for details, but the short version is that I had Minnesota up to 125K total (50K private, 75K public), when it turns out that those numbers should only be 19,420 and 33,759 respectively. It also means that last week's Minnesota numbers were wrong as well.

I've already corrected the spreadsheet; this means the total is 30,580 less than I had it last night.

My apologies for the error...which came on the same day that a White House representative apparently mentioned me by name on MSNBC this morning. Lovely.

Oh, I should note that I know I promised an update to the IA/NE numbers and how this relates to "off-exchange" enrollments, but between the Minnesota correction and the actual paying work that I'm way behind on (you know, my job and all...) that'll have to wait until later today (I hope).

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yesterday morning's big news, of course, was that the Federal ACA exchange (covering 36 states) is now up to over 1.1 million private healthcare plan enrollees. Today brings 4 new state-level updates...and a teaser for two others you probably weren't expecting to see.

New York:
Today's big news is in New York, which announced that they're up to a total of 241,522 enrollees in either private plans or Medicaid/SCHIP expansion. They haven't broken out the number yet, but based on the split in the previous update (156K private, 58K Medicaid/SCHIP) I'm going with a 73% private / 27% Medicaid split until more specific info is released. This increases NY's private enrollments to 176K, up 20K from last week. h/t to Buenaventura for being the first to notify me.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, it wasn't really planning on setting ACASignups.net up as anything more than an embedded Google Spreadsheet, but along with the spike in ACA enrollments over the past 2 weeks has also come a similar spike in website traffic and exposure. Over the past few days, it's been linked to and/or cited by major media outlets including Forbes, New York Magazine and, most notably, the Washington Post, so I figured it was time to expand, organize and tidy up things a bit.

I also wasn't planning on launching the new version of the site until January 1st, but given this morning's announcement that the Federal healthcare exchange (Healthcare.Gov) has topped 1.1 million enrollments--which in turn brings the overall total of private plan enrollments to over 2 million--I decided to go ahead and launch it a bit earlier than expected. (h/t to David S. for the heads up)

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Just a teaser. With the spike in enrollments has also come a spike in traffic and attention, so you knew this was coming...

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, after the insanity of the past few days in terms of both the ever-shifting January enrollment deadline (changing from 12/15 to 12/23 and then 12/24 Federally; ranging from 12/23 to 12/24 to 12/27 to, amazingly, 12/31 for some of the State exchanges) as well as on a personal level (Forbes, the Washington Post and NY Magazine are now citing ACASignups.net as a trusted source), actual updates to the enrollment tally have actually been kind of quiet the past day or so.

(oh, and also, thank you to dKos for the Front Page treatment this morning!)

The numbers were spiking so rapidly in the days leading up to Christmas Eve that it's a bit odd to see such a dearth of new data since then.

HOWEVER, there have been 3 updates since then which may seem pretty minor on the surface, but which speak volumes about what's actually happening nationally.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

I included this as an update to my previous diary, but decided that given how often I'm hearing this new attack lately, it deserved it's own diary.

First it was "No one can get on the website!"

Then it was "OK, the site is loading but no one can create an account!"

Then "OK, you can create an account but no one can view the plans!"

Then "OK, you can view the plans but no one can fill out their application!"

Then "OK, you can apply but no one can actually enroll!"

Then "OK, it works now, but no one bothering to do so anymore!"

Then "OK, (a lot of) people are enrolling, but none of the data is being transferred to the insurance companies!"

And now that we've hit over 1.8 million private enrollments, the new attack is:

"FINE, a lot of people have ENROLLED, but how many have actually PAID???"

Below the fold, a simple 2 part response:

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yesterday was, as predicted, rather chaotic on the ACASignups.net front. This morning, the fun continues with a few more last-minute updates. Also, I made my "final" predictions late last night...which I'm now scrapping in favor of a different type of "final" prediction (see below for more on this).

This morning's updates below the fold:

--Washington State (h/t ArcticStones):

Enrollments in private health plans on Healthplanfinder, the state’s online insurance marketplace, surged past 65,000 as applicants hustled to beat the Monday night deadline for coverage beginning Jan. 1, Washington Health Benefit Exchange officials reported Tuesday.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

CoveredCA just posted this on their Facebook and Twitter feeds:

Good evening! If you started an application December 23, but haven't completed it, you now have until Friday, December 27 at 8pm to finish for coverage starting on January 1. However, you cannot complete your application online as part of this extension. Instead, please call our service center at 1-800-300-1506, or work with a Certified Enrollment Counselor or Agent - you can find one at this link. Happy Holidays, and get covered!

Meanwhile, the latest tally of enrollments now stands at 1.797M Private Enrollments and 3.931M Medicaid/SCHIP expansion.

I also wanted to go on the record with my prediction for the final private enrollment tally projection for the "real" 1/1/14 coverage deadline of midnight tonight: 1.95 - 2.0 million.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

A few more minor updates today, but honestly, with the deadline having passed in a few states, extended to tonight in most, and extended until through Friday in still others, it's gonna be chaotic to keep up for a few days.

HOWEVER, here's where things stand as of 11:30am, 12/24/13 (thanks to ArcticStones for the Vermont & Colorado updates):

--CALIFORNIA: They hit 30,000 private enrollments yesterday, up from 15K/day 2 weeks ago to 20K/day last week. I currently have them at around 450,000 total, which coincides with their "over 400K" tweet from 24 hours ago (ie, there's been a good 30-60K more since then).

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yes, I know I just posted the latest numbers this morning: 1.65 million private enrollments, 3.9 million Medicaid/SCHIP.

That was then. This is now.

New numbers from RI, MD, KY, CO and especially California have now brought the tally up once again; we now stand at:

Private Enrollments: 1.73 Million
Medicaid/SCHIP: 3.92 Million

Total: 5.65 Million (+ 3.1 million young adults on their parents plans)

Another shout-out to ArcticStones, who brought me 4 of the 5 latest state updates in quick succession.

Oh, and re. the messy, 4-line California figures...they add up:

 

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, after my victory lap the other day upon confirmation that ACASignups.net had nailed the actual current number of private Obamacare exchange enrollments with 99% accuracy, it was pointed out to me by ericlewis0 that even including the Medicare/SCHIP expansion enrollments, the actual total number of people who now have healthcare coverage (or are about to as of 10 days from now) who previously didn't is actually more than 8 Million.

That is to say, I completely forgot the 3.1 million (as of June 2012...it was 2.5 million a year earlier, so I'm sure it's even higher today) young adults under 26 years old who now have coverage through their parents policies who otherwise wouldn't have, thanks to the Affordable Care Act.

If you add these 3.1 million to the 1.4 million private enrollments and the 3.9 million Medicaid/SCHIP expansion enrollments, that actually comes to around 8.4 million.

 

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Politico, less than an hour ago:

More than one million Americans signed up for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act during the first three weeks of December, including 500,000 through the federal exchange, President Barack Obama announced Friday.

  • Official enrollments 10/1 - 11/30: 364,682
  • "Over 1 Million" 12/01 - 12/20: at least 1,000,001
  • Total: 1,364,683

ACASignups.net as of this morning: 1,349,562

Damn, we're good.

Thanks to ArcticStones, ybruti, MotherShipper, shiska64, rugbymom, timmyc, CJB, rsmpdx, dadadata, Rolyboy6 and everyone else who has been helping me with this project.

Meanwhile, check out the news on Medicaid (which has been spottier/harder to come by, even though the numbers are already higher):

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

As we move into Week 12, the following is mostly just a more organized roundup of the past few days' developments, plus a cleaned-up graph:

This has been the craziest week yet for ACASignups.net, and the past day or so, things went into overdrive.

First, we had this:

If November had an Obamacare surge, consider this the December deluge. California averaged 15,000 daily enrollments early last week, about double the sign-ups the state had in early December. New York is now seeing about 4,500 residents choosing plans each day and, in Connecticut, the number is hovering around 1,400.

That bumped the number of private plan enrollments up to 815,000.

Pages