Update x2: ACA Enrollments hit 390K; 29,000 on Sun-Mon alone!

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

The newly game HealthCare.gov signed up 29,000 people on Sunday and Monday, an official familiar with the program said, more than were enrolled through the federal Obamacare portal in all of October.

The enrollment surge follows a round-the-clock effort by federal tech officials and contractors to make more than 400 software fixes and hardware upgrades since the site’s disastrous launch.

Already added to the ACASignups.net spreadsheet; see updated graph below.

As you can see, at the current rate, they'll hit roughly 2.9 million by 3/31/14.

HOWEVER:

1. This is for the FEDERAL website only, and does not include the 14 state-run exchanges, which have been doing much better and post their numbers separately. So far only New York and Oregon have full numbers for November.. California, Kentucky etc. haven't reported in for the last couple of weeks; I'm pretty sure the total through 11/30 will be around 400K (as I've been predicting) even without the extra 29K in the first 2 days of December.

2. Also, the 100K for November & 29K for 12/01-02 are apparently only for the Healthcare.gov WEBSITE itself, not necessarily enrollments that were called in, faxed in, mailed in or filed directly in other ways.

7 million - 400K = 6.6 million, with 120 days to go. That means they'll have to average around 55,000 enrollments per day to hit the 7 million mark.

Uphill battle, given the website problems over the first 6 weeks? Yes. Impossible? Not at all.

Update: Yes, I realize that a straight-line projection is unrealistic, but I have limited time and am not an Excel or graphing wizard. I'm sure others can do logarithmic curved trend lines, etc etc. but I don't have time for that.

It should end up being a "double-S" curve: There should be a huge spike this month through the first cut-off point of 12/23; then it should level off, then start spiking up again in early March, I would guess, for the 2nd cut-off point.

Update x2: Fresh numbers out of Washington State have pushed the private enrollment figure up to around 390,000.