UPDATED: Arkansas: Here's the ~380,000 residents who could lose coverage, by county
In Arkansas, 70,404 people enroll in private exchange policies as of the end of January. I estimate around 50,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus another 331,000 enrolled in Arkansas' "Private Option" ACA Medicaid expansion program for a total of 380,000 residents kicked to the curb.
As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:
- Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)
- Adjust for 1/31/17 QHP selections based on hard CMS data.
- Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
- Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
- Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
- Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.
The Medicaid expansion data comes directly from state data.