Alabama: Here's the ~134,000 residents who could lose coverage, by county
As I noted when I crunched the numbers for Texas, it's actually easier to figure out how many people would lose coverage if the ACA is repealed in non-expansion states because you can't rip away healthcare coverage from someone who you never provided it to in the first place.
My standard methodology applies:
- Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)
- Project QHP selections as of 1/31/17 based on statewide signup estimates
- Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
- Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
- Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
- Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.
In the case of Alabama, assuming 187,000 people* enroll in exchange policies by the end of January, I estimate around 134,000 of them would be forced off of their policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal.
*(updated 1/30/17 w/revised estimates)