Connecticut: Here's the ~282,000 residents who could lose coverage, by County and Congressional District
In Connecticut, 111,541 people selected Qualified Health Plans during the 2017 Open Enrollment Period. Of these, 76% are receiving financial assistance; of those, I estimate around 69,000 will actually pay their premiums and receive significant tax credits. In addition, the CT Dept. of Social Services just confirmed 213,000 CT residents enrolled in Medicaid via ACA expansion. That's a total of 282,000 CT residents who would likely lose coverage if the ACA is fully repealed without a reasonable replacement on hand.
For the individual market, my standard methodology applies:
- Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)
- Project QHP selections as of 1/31/17 based on statewide signup estimates.
- Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
- Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
- Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
- Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.
Unfortunately, I only have a hard county-level number for Fairfield County (31% of the total). For the other 7 counties in the state, I based my estimates on their proportion of the total state population; I also did this for the Medicaid expansion estimates. This is obviously imperfect, but it's the best I can do for the moment.
For the Congressional District breakout, the Kaiser Family Foundation had all 5 counties estimated at the exact same number of exchange enrollees. Since Fairfield County is located in the 4th CD, I bumped theirs up a bit and made the other 4 even. Again, imperfect but the best I can do at th emoment.