Virginia: Here's the ~301,000 residents who could lose coverage, by county/city
As I noted when I crunched the numbers for Texas, it's actually easier to figure out how many people would lose coverage if the ACA is repealed in non-expansion states because you can't rip away healthcare coverage from someone who you never provided it to in the first place.
My standard methodology applies:
- Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)
- Project QHP selections as of 1/31/17 based on statewide signup estimates
- Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
- Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
- Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
- Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.
In the case of Virginia, assuming 450,000 people enroll in exchange policies by the end of January, I estimate around 301,000 of them would be forced off of their policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal.
Interestingly, it looks like unlike most states which embed cities within counties, in Virginia, it looks like some cities are counted as counties instead, at least judging by the list below (the numbers add up, so there's no double-counting going on):