START OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD

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Kentucky: Here's the ~487,000 residents who could lose coverage, by county

In Kentucky, assuming 80,000 people enroll in private exchange policies by the end of January, I estimate around 43,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus another 443,000 enrolled in the ACA Medicaid expansion program, for a total of 487,000 residents kicked to the curb.

As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:

  • Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county. This is tricky for Kentucky, as I wasn't able to find a county-level breakout of exchange QHPs. Instead, I based my estimate on what percentage of the total state population each county comprises; this is not ideal since there are obviously socioeconomic variances county to county, but it's the best I can do for now; if anyone has hard QHP numbers, send me the link and I'll update the table.
  • I also don't have a county-level breakout of what percent of QHP enrollees are APTC-subsidized, but statewide it's 67%, so I used that.
  • Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
  • Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
  • Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
  • Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.
  • For the Medicaid numbers, I do have hard county-level numbers from October 2015...and I also have a hard statewide total from March 2016, which is 4% higher. I bumped up each county number by 4% to bring the numbers up to date as much as possible.