2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

Time: D H M S

New Hampshire: Requested unsubsidized avg 2017 indy mkt rate hikes revised to 14.5%

Hat Tip To: 
Louise Norris

When I originally calculated the average requested rate hike for New Hampshire, I came up with a weighted estimate of around 13.1%. A month later, the average dropped a few points...but not for a good reason: One of the remaining ACA-created Co-Ops, Community Health Options, decided to pull out of New Hampshire (they started out as a Maine-only operation, expaneded into nearby NH for the 2nd and 3rd year, but are pulling back to Maine-only again). Since CHO would otherwise have been requesting a more than 40% increase, them dropping out actually lowered the average increase for everyone else. This obviously illustrates a major caveat with my "average rate increase" methodology: It only applies to those who are able to renew their existing plans. The moment a carrier pulls out of parts/all of a state, or drops PPOs (while keeping HMOs), etc, I have to remove a portion of the existing enrollees from the equation completely.

This doesn't make my methodology inaccurate at all...it just means that the dozens of publications across the political spectrum which have been citing my "24-25% average increase" figure should really take that caveat into account when reporting on it.

Anyway, it looks like I have to revise the spreadsheet again, because Anthem (aka "Matthew Thornton" for some reason?), which originally was only requesting rate hikes averaging around 6.7%, appears to have bumped up their ask significantly:

This, of course, means that the statewide average increases as well, and now stands at 14.5%...higher than it was in the first place: