HC.gov Week Seven Snapshot: 4.08M weekly, 8.25M w/MOST auto-renewals (???)

Hmmm...here's my official projection from last week:

Update 12/18/15: Not really an update so much as a clarification: I'm guessing active QHP selections for this week via HC.gov could run anywhere between 1.0 - 2.0 million, plus another 2.5 - 3.5 million automatic renewals, for a weekly total of between 3.5 - 5.5 million.

Today's actual report:

Health Insurance Marketplace Open Enrollment Snapshot - Week 7 • December 13 - December 19, 2015

Since Open Enrollment began on November 1, more than 8.2 million consumers signed up for health coverage through the HealthCare.gov platform or had their coverage automatically renewed – with millions more selecting plans through State-based Marketplaces. Last year at this time, about 6.4 million had signed up for coverage or been automatically renewed by December 19, 2014. Since November 1, about 2.4 million new consumers signed up for Marketplace coverage, over one-third higher than the number of new consumers that signed up by the deadline for January 1 coverage last year. Between December 13 and December 19, more than 4 million people selected plans or had their coverage automatically renewed. High consumer demand as we neared the enrollment deadline for January 1 coverage, as well as the automatic renewal process, contributed to this overall total.

My combined active + automatic range was 3.5 - 5.5 million; the actual number came in at 4.08 million, so in that sense I called it "correctly".

CMS had already confirmed that 1.80 million people had enrolled actively between 12/13 - 12/17, and the number of active enrollments for the 18th & 19th (Friday and Saturday) were likely nominal, since we're past the (extended) January deadline. That means that there have been about 2.28 million auto-renewals added to the total so far.

On the one hand, this is below the low end of my 2.5 - 3.5 million range, which is disappointing.

HOWEVER, check this out:

This snapshot, for the first time, reflects the vast majority of consumers who were automatically re-enrolled into 2016 coverage. The re-enrollment process has not yet been completed so as it continues, upcoming snapshots will include additional consumers who were automatically re-enrolled after December 19.

In other words, that 2.28 million figure doesn't include all re-enrollees, although "vast majority" certainly suggests that it includes, what, perhaps 90% of them? If so, that suggests that there's up to another 250,000 or so left to be added in...which would bring the total up to the 2.5 million range after all.

In other words, it's too soon to tell whether or not I "blew" it this week, although I was obviously overstating things when I suggested that the grand total (including state exchanges) had already eclipsed last year's 11.7 million total.

Still, we're in kind of murky waters here, so definitely no self-congratulatory crowing from me this week.

Meanwhile, here's the state-by-state breakdown, which I'll be writing about in more detail later this afternoon: