Time: D H M S

UPDATE: Week Seven Projection: 4.3 Million QHPs (auto-renewals INCLUDED)

As expected, the December Surge ramped up in Week Six, although I overestimated the curve somewhat:

  • Week 6 Projection: 1.50 Million / Actual: 1.33 Million (over by 13%)
  • Cumulative Projection: 4.34 Million / Actual: 4.17 Million (over by 4%)

Given the crazy developments of the past day or so, combined with the auto-renewal factor, things are kind of fuzzy this week. I'm gonna hold tight and assume roughly 4.3 million QHPs including auto-renewals will be added to the mix by Saturday, bringing up to a total of 8.5 million by Saturday, December 19th.

However, there's a major caveat here: I have no idea how many auto-renewals will be added, so I could easily be off by as much as a half a million or so this week.

Update 12/18/15: Not really an update so much as a clarification: I'm guessing active QHP selections for this week via could run anywhere between 1.0 - 2.0 million, plus another 2.5 - 3.5 million automatic renewals, for a weekly total of between 3.5 - 5.5 million.

REMEMBER, as always, that this only includes the 38 states included on the federal exchange; when you throw in the other 13 running their own exchanges, the grand total (assuming I'm in the ballpark) should be roughly 11.3 million QHPs nationally by the end of the week.

Nationally, my rough guess for this week is something close to the following:

  • Sunday, 12/13: 360K nationally (270K
  • Monday, 12/14: 460K nationally (350K
  • Tuesday, 12/15: 780K nationally (600K
  • Wednesday, 12/16: 1.80M* nationally* (1.40M (*400K active + 1.40M auto-renewals?)
  • Thursday, 12/17: 2.10M* nationally (1.60M (*400K active + 1.70M auto-renewals?)
  • Friday, 12/18: 80K nationally (60K
  • Saturday, 12/19: 70K nationally (50K
  • Weekly Total: 5.65M nationally (4.33M
  • Cumulative Total: 11.30M nationally (8.50M

Here's what I expect The Graph to look like through then: