END OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD (42 states)

Time: D H M S

For the record, the CONFIRMED private plan selection total to date is over 7.4 million

I've been saying this for several days now, but yesterday's monthly HHS report confused the hell out of a whole bunch of people by making it sound as though the "current" number of private healthcare policy enrollments via ACA exchanges is only around 4 million. This was especially confusing to some given that a week ago they issued a "weekly snapshot" with nearly 6.4 million via HC.gov alone, and another weekly snapshot yesterday bumping that number up to nearly 6.5 million.

Now, I've been saying for a week or so now that the actual total is up to 8.65 million or more (more like 8.84 million as of today), but the headline above refers to the officially confirmed total. That doesn't mean estimates or speculation; that's the total number reported in official press releases from ACA exchange representatives.

As of 1:00pm today, December 31st, the CONFIRMED total is:

Add all of these up and you get a confirmed QHP selection total of: 7,420,149.

As I say, my estimate is that the current total is actually around 8.84 million as of today. So, where's the 1,419,851 difference?

  • California: Around 390K manual renewals plus another likely 570K autorenewals (around 960K renewals total)
  • New York: Around 130K manual renewals plus another likely 200K autorenewals (around 330K renewals total)

Those alone should account for roughly 1.29 million. The remaining 130K difference can easily be found in the missing days between the 15th and today:

  • Federal Exchange (HC.gov, 37 states): 5 days (new only)
  • California: 16 days (new only)
  • Colorado: 16 days (new only)
  • Connecticut: 16 days (new only)
  • DC: 10 days (new only)
  • Hawaii: 16 days (new + renewals)
  • Idaho: 17 days (new only)
  • Kentucky: 16 days (new only)
  • Maryland: 3 days (new only)
  • Massachusetts: 3 days (new + renewals)
  • Minnesota: 5 days (new + renewals)
  • New York: 11 days (new only)
  • Rhode Island: 11 days (new + renewals)
  • Vermont: 1 day (new + renewals)
  • Washington State: 9 days (new + some renewals)

Does anyone really want to argue that there haven't been at least 130K out of the list above?