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New York: 83K *new* QHPs, 142K new Medicaid enrollees thru 12/20

Hat Tip To: 
Dan Goldberg

When we last checked in on New York State, they had added a total of 195,000 new people since November 15th in addition to those already enrolled for 2014. This broke out to around 126.6K added to Medicaid and 68.4K set up for 2015 private policies.

NY's enrollment deadline for January QHP coverage ended on Saturday, and they've just come out with an updated total. Again, this does not include renewals of current enrollees:

NY up to 225,244, enrollment, not counting renewals @charles_gaba hopefully medicaid /qhp breakdown soon

— Dan Goldberg (@DanGoldbergCNY) December 22, 2014

Again, no breakout yet; that usually shows up within an hour or so of the initial total, based on Dan Goldberg's past scoops. Assuming it's roughly a 65/35 split like the prior total was, that should mean roughly 79,000 private policies and 146,000 Medicaid/CHIP.

I'll update this with more details as they come out...

UPDATE: OK, the ratio is skewed a bit more towards private policies than that, which makes sense due to the deadline factor:

Of the 225,244 enrollees, 142,187 enrolled in Medicaid and 83,057 signed up for a private health insurance plan. 

State health officials said these numbers included all those who signed up through Dec. 20, the last day to enroll for coverage beginning Jan. 1.

State officials also said the number only represents those who were not previously enrolled in 2014.

Meanwhile, for comparison, last year's Open Enrollment total for New York was 370,000 private policies. According to Goldberg, their target for 2015 is to nearly double this to 720,000 (and yes, that's private policies only, not including Medicaid).

The good news is that the 83K to date should be applied towards the extra 350K. On the other hand, that the odds are that not all 370K of the current enrollees are renewing their policies (either manually or automatically). If you figure 350K of them do so, that means they're likely at around 433K total for 2015 so far (around 60%). Adding another 287K on top of that by mid-February is a tall order, but not an unattainable one.

Alternately, NY is one of the few states in which my own projection (550K) is lower than the official target from that state. 430K would be 79% of the way to that goal.