Florida: HC.gov now has 57% of Individual Market enrollees; 65% of total now ACA-compliant

Hat Tip To: 
Larry Levitt

Thanks to the Kaiser Family Foundation's Larry Levitt, who linked to a PDF from the Florida Health Insurance Advisory Board. This report has data which has made the news twice already: First, because of the 13.2% "weighted average" premium increase for the state (which has come under fire for "weighting" based on projected membership instead of current membership), and secondly because of the exchange QHP enrollment number in June, which is 22.5% lower than the 4/19 total (but which, as I've already shown, isn't nearly as bad as right-wing outlets like the Daily Caller are claiming).

Levitt has noted a third interesting data point in this report:

Two-thirds of those buying their own insurance in Florida are now in ACA-compliant plans. http://t.co/JYVo1UXkvf

— Larry Levitt (@larry_levitt) September 2, 2014

I took a look to see what he's referring to, and it's interesting indeed:

The first thing to note is that yes, the HC.gov QHP enrollment number as of June is indeed 220K less than the 4/19 total (983K > 763K). As I noted a few days ago, around 99K never paid their first month's premium, around 14K likely turned 65 and moved to Medicare, and the other 108K dropped their coverage after a month or two for other assorted reasons, which can include getting a job with benefits, marrying someone who already has coverage, dropping onto Medicaid and so forth.

However, there's some other interesting numbers here as well. Most notably, Florida's total individual insurance market is 1.33 million...of which 763K are enrolled through Healthcare.Gov. That's 57% of the individual market in the first year alone.

Even more interesting: There's another 104K people who enrolled in ACA compliant policies off the exchange in Florida. That means they have the same "full coverage" requirements of the exchange plans, but enrolled directly through the companies. The vast majority of these people presumably make too much money to qualify for tax subsidies...but some of them might not have even known that subsidies were available. When you add these into the mix, that means that, as Levitt noted, 65% (or almost 2/3) of all individual market policies are now fully ACA-compliant in Florida. The other 35% (around 465K) are "transitional" or "grandfathered" policies which will presumably be phased out/transferred over to ACA-compliant ones over the next year or two.

This brings us to the final big blue number at the bottom: The FLHIAB expects that 866,485 number to grow by almost 24% next year. They don't say what they think the breakdown between exchange-based and non-exchange based ACA policies will be, but assuming the ratios are similar to the current ones, that would mean HC.gov policies would grow to around 944K (paid) QHPs.

It also means that, assuming the total individual market stays about the same, that by this time next year over 80% of all Florida individual market policies will be fully ACA-compliant.