Reminder: March/Early-April HHS Report expected today; look for 7.78M as of 4/15

Just a reminder: Assuming that Inside Health Policy has it right, the official HHS report should be released sometime today and should include about 99% of the exchange QHP enrollment data through 4/15.

In the past, they've usually released the monthly reports around the 11th or 12th of the following month. In this case they've obviously been delayed because of a) the insanity at the end of March and b) thankfully, they apparently want to squeeze in the first half of April as well (as you know, I was deeply concerned that they might lop off the last 2 days of the month and roll them over to an April report next month, which would cause no end of confusion among sloppy media outlets which can't take a glance at the calendar and do basic math).

They generally release these reports around 4pm. I know this because there've been at least 2 cases where the conference call with Kathleen Sebelius started up right as I was waiting for my kid to get home from school, so we'll see if that holds true today as well.

If they have their info correct, the only exchange QHP data which will be missing are the 4/13 - 4/15 enrollments from the 15 state exchanges. Assuming a late mini-surge of perhaps 60K/day nationally and assuming the state exchanges collectively were making up around 22% of the total QHPs, that should mean that only around 40K or so will be "missing" from the report.

Of course, even then, I happen to have the data all the way through 4/15 for DC, Minnesota and New York...and neither Connecticut nor Washington State allowed extensions past 3/31 anyway (although they both did allow for reviews on a case-by-case basis). I'm assuming that the other 10 state exchanges will issue their 4/15 totals today or tomorrow as well, giving us a full picture of where things stand.

Things to look for in the report:

  • How close are my final projections? Remember, I had it at 7.08 million as of 3/31 (depending on how strict you want to be), and 7.78M as of 4/15. We already know that it was around 7.1M on 3/31, but an exact number would be nice for completeness' sake.
  • Remember those awesome pictures of people lined up around the block in El Paso, Texas on the final day or two of March? Remember that study I posted last night which claimed 760K QHPs in Texas as of mid-March? We get to findout whether the Lone Star State really did come through at the tail end. As of March 1st, the state with the highest number of uninsured residents was only at 31% of their fair share of the CBO's 7M projection; let's see if they managed to pull it off in spite of Rick Perry's (and the entire GOP's) opposition.
  • Florida was at a reasonable 65% of their QHP share (442K out of 675K) as of March 1st, and rumor has it that FL also saw a massive late surge in spite of solid GOP opposition to people acquiring decent health coverage. Did they manage to get over the mark?
  • On the Medicaid/CHIP side of things, I expect the HHS report to show a total of around 7 million enrolled via the exchanges. However, over the prior 5 months I've only been able to actually use about a fraction of the total from the HHS reports to avoid double-counting the CMS numbers, baseline churn, the differences in how the states report their enrollments and so forth. Assuming this holds true this time around, I'm guessing that I'll be adding something like a half million or so to either the "Expansion Eligible" or "Previously Eligible (Woodworkers)" tallies.
  • Finally, assuming the report does include (practically) all numbers through mid-April, this will also give us a fair comparison of how well all 50 states (plus DC) performed.

So, just keep checking in; assuming all of the above is accurate, I should be reporting on the (near) final totals sometime between 4-5pm today.

UPDATE: I have a meeting for the next hour or so, but a commentor noted that according to President Obama's daily schedule, he's meeting with the National Ass'n of Insurance Commissioners right now, and has a meeting with "insurance executives" at 1:30 this afternoon, for the "Pool Spray" (which is apparently the term used for a press photo opp event). This suggests that he may release the final 4/15 total himself in about an hour and a half:

11:40 AM
The President and the Vice President meet with representatives from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners
Closed Press

1:35 PM
The President and the Vice President meet with insurance executives
Roosevelt Room
Pool Spray