3/31 Exchange QHP Grand Total: 7.1 Million (estimate)

2019 OPEN ENROLLMENT ENDS (most states)

Time: D H M S

The headlines are all buzzing with the announcement of the official grand total of exchange-based QHPs as of midnight yesterday: 7,041,000:

How many people have signed up for private coverage under Obamacare? 7,041,000, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney announced Tuesday afternoon.

But wait, what's this?

That number is likely to rise: It does not include the Monday sign-ups in the 14 states operating their own marketplaces. In addition, the enrollment deadline was relaxed for people having trouble completing the process, so some people could still sign up in the next two weeks.

Yup, just as I suspected this morning:

IF I'm interpreting Mr. Park's words correctly, he's saying that the grand total of exchange QHPs was brought over the 7 million mark even without including the state exchange enrollments for the day.

So, how many more did the 15 state exchanges (well, 14 + DC) bring in?

Again, assuming the Federal exchange made up about 78% of the total:

  • 217,176 / X = 78 / 100
  • 21,717,600 / X = 78
  • X = 278,430

Subtract 217,000 from 278,000 and you get roughly 61,000 additional enrollments across California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and the District of Columbia.

Grand total including these should be roughly 7.102 Million.

So, how'd I do?

...give or take :)

Of course, I don't know if that 78% HC.gov share is correct or not. The state-run exchanges could be higher than 61K, or it could be lower (though I doubt it). And I'd be perfectly fine if it turns out to be higher, believe me!