Indiana: 40.5K Medicaid "Woodworkers" supports my "15% in Non-expansion States" ratio
2018 MIDTERM ELECTION
Time: D H M S
OK, this doesn't really change the numbers beyond a couple hundred, but it's encouragingto see that my "15% in Non-Expansion States" rule of thumb for estimating the number of people who fall into the "woodworker" category seems to be pretty accurate, at least in Indiana:
Even without expanding eligibility for Indiana Medicaid, the program had enrolled 40,577 more Hoosiers as of March than it had in the same month last year.
More than 15,000 of that year-over-year increase occurred in March alone this year, as a flood of people here and nationally sought coverage before Obamacare would hit them with a tax for going uninsured.
If you take a look at the Medicaid Spreadsheet, you'll see that I currently have the "woodworker" tally for Indiana at 40,951...only 374 more than the number reported above.
That 40,951 is 15% of the combined total number of new Medicaid enrollments for Indiana from both the HC.gov website as well as through traditional state Medicaid agency offices (273,005).
I'm not saying that this will hold true in every state--no doubt some will be higher, others lower. Some states have given exact numbers within the "previously eligible" category (such as Washington and, more recently, Rhode Island and Colorado), although these tend to be expansion states where the 15% rule doesn't apply anyway.
However, for the states which a) haven't expanded Medicaid and b) haven't released an exact breakout, the 15% rule of thumb seems to be about right for determining the number of "previously eligibles" or "woodworkers".