Massachusetts continues to steam ahead: Assuming at least 48.5% of QHP determinations have already selected policies, they should be at roughly 26,000 QHPs through last night, plus another 45,687 added to Medicaid.
If so, MA has reached 82% of their 2014 total in 18 days, and is on their way to a bare minimum of 134K even without the double-surges around 12/23 and 2/15.
Again, I'm expecting as many as 300K Bay Staters before the dust settles in February.
Based on yesterday's Massachusetts update, I'm knocking my "% selected of total determinations" down from an even 50% to 48.5% on any given day. Even so, 48.5% of 48,902 QHP determinations still means roughly 23,700, up nearly 2K on Monday.
As MA's 2014 OE total was only 31,695, this means the state is alread up to 75% of their 2014 total in the first 17 days of the 2015 period.
Put another way, at their current rate, MA is on track to enroll a minimum of 130,000 people for 2015...and that would be even without a December 15 or February 15 surge.
Meanwhile, MassHealth (Medicaid) enrollment continues to steam ahead, now standing at 41,762 people.
When I last estimated QHP enrollments for Massachusetts, I assumed roughly 50% of QHP determinations had been selected and thus figured they were up to roughly 19,200 as of the 27th. Today they posted their 2nd official weekly report, and it looks like I overshot a bit (the actual number through the 28th was 18,646). The good news is that the weekly report also includes three more days (through last night). When you tack on the weekend, the grand total now sits at 21,740. Divide that into the 44,446 QHP determinations and the ratio has dropped slightly, to 48.9%.
Still an impressive showing through the holiday weekend. For the record, MA has reached about 68% of their 2014 open enrollment total in just 15 days, and is on pace to reach at least 135K by 2/15 (though I still estimate they'll reach more than double that).
Meanwhile, Medicaid additions are now up to 38,283 to date:
Massachusetts continues to kick butt this time around in general, but I particularly like that they're providing a daily breakout of their enrollment data. Check today's out, which includes both Wednesday and Thanksgiving Thursday:
This may seem a bit anticlimactic after this morning's Healthcare.Gov news, but it actually just serves to underscore how great the 2015 open enrollment period is doing so far:
Again, assuming roughly 50% of all QHP determinations are already resulting in plan selections the same day (which was consistent for at least the first 8 days), this means that total QHP selections should be roughly: 16,186 + 3,770 + 15,562 = 35,518 x 0.5 = 17,759. Lop off a couple hundred to err on the side of caution and Massachusetts should have roughly 17,500 or more QHPs selected already.
Once again: In 2014 they only hit 32K total in 6.5 months.
Meanwhile, ACA Medicaid can claim credit for nearly 31,000 more people being added to the tally.
Yesterday I posted the MA Health Connector's first weekly dashboard report, in which they confirmed that yes, almost precisely 50% of all QHP determinations are consistently resulting in actual QHP enrollments on that same day. This held true on opening weekend (52%...3,600 out of 6,972) and held firm at 50% even in the first 8 days (14,101 out of 28,175), so I'm now pretty confident that it will stay at least at 50% daily going forward (obviously it should increase as we approach 12/15, which is fine).
Having said that, I can now add two more days to the tally...11/23 & 11/24:
So, that's 14,101 confirmed through 11/22. Add to that 50% of the Monday & Tuesday numbers (4,330 total) and you get an additional 2,165, or 16,266 QHP enrollments total.
OK, it might be slightly lower than 50% even, but certainly above 16K.
This is awesome. Remember how last week I was assuming that roughly 50% of those determined eligible for QHP enrollments likely had already gone ahead and done so each day? At the end of the week I pulled back from this and went with a more cautious 1/3.
Well, it turns out I had it right in the first place: Massachusetts is about to announce 14,101 QHPs actually selected as of Saturday, out of 28,175 determinations (essentially 50% on the nose)!
In addition, they're already up to 23,792 MassHealth (Medicaid) enrollments, which is also excellent.
(link provided soon...it's not even on their website yet!)
For context, Massachusetts is enrolling people in private policies eleven times faster than they did last year...and that includes the December & late March surges.
Put another way, in just 8 days MA has already enrolled about 44% as many people as they did in 200 days last time around.
To recap: In the initial few days of 2015 #OE2, Massachusetts' actual QHP enrollments averaged about 52% of the total "determined eligible" number. The first official weekly report (with "selected plan" QHPs) will be released Monday, so for the moment I'm going with that ratio daily. With that in mind, it looks like MA may have broken the 10,000 milestone in just the first 5 days!
That's 19,957 "determined eligible" for QHPs. Assuming 52% have already selected plans, that's a total of over 10,300 to date.
Again, for comparison sake, last time around MA only 31,695 people were able to enroll. If my 10.3K figure proves accurate, that's 2,060 per day, compared with just 158/day for 2014...or 13x the rate.
Massachusetts is making up for last year's disaster in spades so far.
In addition, check out the confirmed Medicaid (MassHealth) tally: 16,292 people already.
As I noted yesterday, the good news is that Massachusetts is posting daily metric reports on the new ACA Health Connector exchange, a level of frequency which surpasses even Minnesota.
The (mildly irritating) news is that with all of that data being served up daily, the main number that concerns me here at ACASignups--the "number who've selected a plan"--will only be included weekly, every Monday.
Still, until then I can at least get a rough idea. The most recent official press release stated that 3,600 QHPs had been enrolled in out of 6,972 people "determined eligible" for them, or 52% of the total. This number will bounce around from day to day, no doubt, but it's a reasonable starting point to use until Monday.
So, assuming 52% of "determined eligibles" are consistently actually enrolling in policies, today's dashboard report suggests that the number for the first 4 days has reached over 8,400 out of 16,293 total:
