OK, as noted a little earlier, I underestimated the February HHS Report for Exchange-based Private QHP enrollment by about 4.2%:
My Projection: 902,800 (4.202 million total)
Actual Enrollments: 942,833 (4.242 million total)
I'm perfectly happy to have underestimated. As for where the extra 40,000 enrollments came from, my initial guess would be that California, in particular, started ramping up their big March blitz a bit earlier and more successfully than I figured, which, again, I'm absolutely fine with.Update: Nope, actually, California's numbers plummetted in the 2nd half of Feb due to that ugly technical outage; see below for details.
I'm busily plugging the new enrollment numbers into the spreadsheet even as I type this, and will be updating with various notes and observations, so keep checking in.
OK, I've entered the QHP data; a couple of things to note:
UPDATE: On the down side, I was off by 4% this time around.
On the up side, I UNDERESTIMATED:
Actual Feb. enrollments: 942,833, for a total of 4,242,325 thru 3/01/14.
Sarah Kliff at Vox just announced that the February HHS report is expected to be released today at around 4:00pm. A few items in anticipation of that:
As I've noted several times, I'm projecting the report to total around 902,000 exchange-based private QHP enrollments for the month of February (technically 2/02 - 3/01)
If accurate, this would bring the cumulative total of exchange-based private QHP enrollments to 4.202 million (from 10/1/13 - 3/01/14)
From the data I have, the average daily enrollment rate in February was almost identical to that of January, which had about 1.146 million QHP enrollments. HOWEVER, the January report included five weeks of data (12/28 - 2/01), while the February report will only include four weeks (2/02 - 3/01). Therefore, even at the same daily average, it'll be about 20% lower no matter what.
If you want to get REALLY specific, call it 902,800 and 4,202,292.
I've been dead-on target 6 times in a row without hyping up my projections beforehand. This time I am hyping myself up beforehand, so I'll probably be way off...but as long as I've UNDERestimated the tally, I'll be perfectly fine with that...
The report will be released in about 5 minutes, but my kid gets home from school in about 10, so it'll be a good 20 minutes before I can really post anything. Feel free to follow Sarah Kliff of Vox in the meantime!
I've had quite a few updates first announced via Twitter, but this is the first one I've received via Facebook: Kynect Kentucky just announced 275,000 total enrollments, an increase of 10,086 since 2/27. The announcement was apparently made on Thursday the 6th, so presumably they hit the 275K point by the end of the Wednesday the 5th. Assuming the same 20.4% QHP / 80.6% Medicaid ratio that they've had until now, that brings KY up to 56,000 Private QHPs and 219,000 new Medicaid enrollments.
kynect Enrollments Top 275,000!
Staff at the Kentucky Health Benefit Exchange paused on Thursday to celebrate this enrollment milestone, and prepared for a different kind of "March Madness," as Kentuckians rush to find affordable health care coverage through kynect before the March 31 deadline, when the 2014 open enrollment period comes to a close.
UPDATE: Hold the phone! Kynect just replied to me personally on Facebook, clarifying both the even more-recent total through yesterday as well as the exact QHP / Medicaid numbers!!
No sooner had the January CMS report come out then wham, a new update from Kentucky...unfortunately it's actually a drop in QHP enrollments, since the prior 59K estimate was based on a very general statement by KY Gov. Beshear. As a result, QHPs drop about 5K (from 59K to 54,369) while Medicaid/CHIP enrollments go way up (from 185K to 210,545).
Under @kynectky so far, 210,545 have qualified for Medicaid coverage and 54,369 have purchased private insurance. #ACA
Not exact numbers, but these are reasonable given the previous breakdown (49,662 Private / 181,705 Medicaid): KY Governor Steve Beshear announced that the combined total of enrollments in Kentucky has hit 244,000, broken out roughly 25% to 75%, which would be 61K private, 183K Medicaid. However, to be safe I'm erring on the side of caution and making it 59K Private / 185K Medicaid until a formal press release comes out.
[as of Thursday], 244,000 Kentuckians have signed up for coverage through Kentucky's exchange, Beshear said.
About three-fourths of them enrolled in the state's expanded Medicaid program and the rest in private insurance plans. The state's performance has earned praise from PresidentBarack Obama.
"Those aren't just numbers," Beshear said. "They represent ... real improvement in people's health."
This is significant for another reason. Previously, Kentucky's limited February data made it look like private QHP enrollments had plummeted, down to 20% of their January rate.
This just in...Kentucky's latest update has KY Private QHP enrollment up to 49,662 from 48,611 on February 1st (a modest 2% increase) and Medicaid enrollment up to 181,705 from 155,172 (a 17% increase).
231,367 Kentuckians are enrolled in new health coverage through @kynectky. If #ACA is repealed, 231,367 Kentuckians are SOL. #kysen
An article in Bloomberg Businessweek about the sluggish early enrollment in SHOP (Small Business) exchanges includes this graphic, which gives updated enrollment data for 5 states. I already have the 2,155 California and 5,000 New York numbers, but didn't have any data for Connecticut or Kentucky until now. Colorado was up to 1,055 previously, so this update bumps it up by 241. Add that to the 500 in Connecticut and 200 in Kentucky, and it's 941 more people with health insurance who didn't have it before. Not much, but every addition counts...
4,975 more people enrolled since January 30. No Private/Public breakdown, but based on the existing ratio, I'm guessing around 23% Private QHP / 77% Medicaid/CHIP, or 1,145 / 3,830. This brings KY up to 45,305 and 155,172 respectively.
Add another 55K direct new Medicaid enrollments and you're at 210K on the Public side.
OK, this is a new one...two updates for the same state only 14 hours apart:
Hot off the press at #RWJFRR - Kentucky official says 195,502 have used Kynect to get coverage (up by 12,000 this week). 44,160 are in QHPs.
That's 760 more QHPs / 12,742 more Medicaid/CHIP enrollees than I had last night. This also brings Kentucky up to over 20% of their absurdly-high "projection" of 220,000 QHPs (or, conversely, 46.4% of the more reasonable "Proportional % of 7 Million" figure).
UPDATE: I should have noted that the actual total number of new Medicaid enrollments for Kentucky is now over 206,000 if you include direct (off-exchange) enrollments.
Kentucky continues to slowly but steadily increase their tally, hitting 19% of their CMS projection target with 42,000 private QHP enrollees as of last Thursday. The 2,200 new additions have been subtracted from the "Not broken out by state" pool, bringing that total down to 486,500. Again, any new exchange enrollees which are added up through Jan. 23 will be subtracted from this since it fills out the "3 million" total announced by Kathleen Sebelius last week.
Meanwhile, on the Medicaid side, Kentucky added another 12,000 new enrollees, bringing them up to 189,000 when you add the 55K direct additions. It's important to note that according to the CMS reports, these people should all be new to Medicaid, not renewed accounts.
As of Thursday, according to the state, 176,000 Kentuckians have signed up for health insurance.
So far 42,000 have signed up for private insurance, or roughly 14 percent of the total number of uninsured Kentuckians. That compares to 134,000, or 44 percent of those eligible, who have signed up for Medicaid.
Not much to say here, just steady improvement. Kentucky's Private QHP Enrollments have gone up from 33,289 to 39,771, a 19% increase since January 2nd. Medicaid Enrollments are up from 100,359 to 122,328, a 22% increase. Kentucky is now up to 18% of their absurdly high CMS projection level.
122,328 have enrolled in Medicaid and
39,771 have enrolled in a qualified health plan (QHP).
Nearly 44% of the enrollees in Medicaid or qualified health plans are under 35 years old.
Kentucky's enrollment continues to quietly but steadily increase, with private exchange enrollments up 5% over Christmas Eve (from 31,672 to 33,289) and Medicaid expansion up 7% (from 84,480 to 90,254). Ironically, for all the praise they receive for their exchange running so smoothly, KY is actually still only at about 15% of their CBO goal, mainly because it was set absurdly high in the first place (220,000, or slightly higher than New York which has a population 4.5x as large).