UPDATED: The Graph: 11.02 million QHP selections confirmed thru 12/23

Update 12/23: I've updated the text and graph to include the final numbers from Minnesota & Nevada.

This is by no means the final version of The Graph for 2020, of course; there's still no data at all from the District of Columbia, Idaho, Rhode Island or Vermont, and the deadline is still days, weeks or even a month away for nine states.

Having said that, with the Week 7 HC.gov Snapshot Report being released earlier this afternoon, this is a good time to pause and take a look at how the 2020 Open Enrollment Period is shaping up. Remember, even HC.gov's total will change slightly when the dust settles...they're still missing the final 3 hours of the extended Open Enrollment Period (I'm guessing perhaps 30,000 more?), plus an unknown number of "callbacks" to people who were unable to get through on 12/15 but left their contact information (perhaps another few thousand?).

On the other hand, this will likely be cancelled out by a good 30K - 40K who are subtracted from the final count due to data entry corrections, last-minute cancellations and enrollees having their applications rejected for assorted legal verification reasons.

As you can see below, in addition to the 8.3 million QHPs confirmed across the 38 HC.gov states earlier today, nine of the thirteen state-based exchanges have provided either partial or final enrollment data, adding another 2.71 million QHPs, or 11.02 million total nationally.

Last year's final, official tally came to 11.44 million, so we need...

  • ...around 428,000 more to beat 2019,
  • ...around 734,000 more to beat 2018,
  • ...around 1.2 million more to beat 2017, or...
  • ...around 1.67 million more to beat 2016, which was also the all-time record.

Needless to say, while beating 2019 might be feasible (and would indeed reverse a three-year trend, I find it very difficult to believe it would go beyond that.