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UPDATE: Connecticut: APPROVED rate hikes: 28.4% assuming NO CSRs (+ 1-week enrollment extension confirmed)

I ran an updated analysis of the requested average rate hikes for Connecticut last month. At the time, the only two carriers operating on the CT exchange next year (Anthem and ConnectiCare) were still noncommittal about actually committing to doing so. Statewide, it looked like the carriers were asking for rate increases averaging around 23.8% if CSR payments were guaranteed or 33.5% if they weren't.

As reported by Louise Norris today, the Connecticut insurance dept. reported that both carriers have now committed to sticking around next year, and the approved average rate increases now assume that CSR payments won't be made after all. In the end, the statewide average looks like roughly 28.4% (Norris pegs it at 29.3%, but that's because she generally only includes individual market carriers participating on the ACA exchanges, while I also include carriers and plans offered off-exchange as well).

Since off-exchange-only plans aren't impacted by the CSR factor anyway, assuming the Kaiser Famly Foundation's estimates are fairly accurate, guaranteed CSR payments should knock roughly 6.7 points off the average, meaning CSRs alone make up around 24% of the total rate increases (this is actually pretty low compared to many states). At this stage, though, unless Senators Murray & Alexander are able to pull a rabbit out of their hats in the Senate HELP committee hearings, the odds are pretty good that CSRs will not be locked in for 2018, meaning sky-high Silver rate increases across the nation.

Oh, one more thing: According to this article from WNPR, Access Health Connecticut will be extending their Open Enrollment period this year after all, by one week:

Open enrollment on the exchange begins in November. In Connecticut it will run until December 22, one week longer than the abbreviated federal enrollment period.

I haven't seen this anywhere else; they don't even mention the extension in their recent press releases, so I"m not 100% sure about this, but the article seems pretty clear about it. If so, I think this will be the first time CT has issued any extensions at all.

UPDATE: OK, Access Health CT has officially confirmed the 1-week extension: 

Open Enrollment for Jan. 1st coverage starts on November 1, 2017 to December 22, 2017. #AHCTBoDMeeting

— Access Health CT (@AccessHealthCT) September 14, 2017

UPDATE: I was just watching the Senate HELP hearings when CT Senator Chris Murphy stated that the CSR factor is "around 15%" and the individual mandate enforcement factor is around 6-8% of the total increase.

I'm going to assume that the "15%" refers specifically to Silver plans only (as estimated by the Kaiser Family Foundation), so my 9.6% CSR factor is still valid. The new data here is the mandate enforcement factor; I haven't really pegged this at any particular number for most states, but Murphy was pretty specific on this, so I'm gonna go with at least 6 points; this makes the approved rate changes look more like 15.7% without Trump/GOP sabotage or 28.4% with it: