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2017 Rate Request Early Look: Utah

UPDATE 6/22/16: I've been informed that there was a coding glitch with Utah's website which prevented several carrier rate filings from being listed. I've gone back and plugged in the additional carriers, which account for about 32,000 more Utah residents...but which only moves the weighted average slightly, since Molina's request is fairly close to the 30% average I already had estimated.

This leaves around 93K unaccounted for. Some of them are presumably enrolled via University of Utah plans; U of U's enrollment numbers are redacted, and while the Utah site claims a 0% rate hike, the RR.HC.gov database lists it as 4.47%.

Also, as far as I can tell, "American Medical Security Life Insurance Co." is a branding for UnitedHealthcare, which should clear up that confusion.

WARNING: I can only account for about 142,000 people out of Utah's total individual market here. This is important because the total UT indy market was around 214,000 in 2014, and has likely grown to perhaps 267,000 as of today, which means I'm "missing" nearly half of the enrollees.

This is mitigated by a few factors, however: The odds are that a good 10% or so of the total are enrolled in grandfathered/transitional policies (perhaps 27K), and an unknown number are enrolled in policies which are set to be discontinued. It's also possible that a few carriers simply haven't submitted their filings as of yet--according to this article, UnitedHealthcare is supposedly offering off-exchange individual policies in Utah next year, but I only see United listed under group policies on the Utah Insurance Dept. website.

With that in mind, assuming the missing enrollees don't skew the numbers too much one way or another, here's what things look like for the Beehive State (yes, I looked it up...it's called the "beehive state"):