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Minnesota: Off-Season QHPs ramping way up; over 10K since January

Hmmm...this is kind of interesting. As I noted a few weeks ago, here's what the QHP enrollment pattern has looked like in Minnesota since the end of the 2016 Open Enrollment Period:

  • 11/01/15 - 1/31/16: 85,390 (or 928/day); 33,333 MNcare; 73,173 Medicaid
  • 2/01/16 - 2/14/16: 85,690 (+300, or 21/day); 39,887 MNcare; 90,234 Medicaid
  • 2/15/16 - 3/06/16: 86,856 (+1,166, or 55/day); 45,621 MNcare; 111,449 Medicaid
  • 3/07/16 - 4/17/16: 90,696 (+3,840, or 91/day); 55,357 MNcare; 156,983 Medicaid
  • 4/18/16 - 5/22/16: 91,868(+1,172, or 33/day); 64,040 MNcare; 195,295 Medicaid

Here's the latest report from the MNsure 6/15 board meeting:

  • 5/23/16 - 6/12/16: 95,637 (+3,769, or 179/day); 67,471 MNcare (actually, 112,583 total); 213,641 Medicaid

Obviously the off-season SEP enrollments are ebbing and flowing from month to month, but there's been a dramatic rate increase over the past few weeks. Overall, since open enrollment ended, around 77 people have selected QHPs in the off-season per day, or roughly 8.3% the on-season average. Extrapolated out, that would be around 11,400 per day nationally, although in prior years off-season SEPs have been closer to the 7,000 - 9,000/day range.

  • They've "moved manual enrollments" into their new system, atlhough I that doesn't seem to have made any difference in the actual numbers.
  • Around 1,900 people enrolled in SHOP (small business) exchange policies
  • Over 8,000 people enrolled in standalone dental plans
  • Platinum has completely disappeared this year, while Bronze plans have ramped up dramatically
  • Finally, there were 70,803 people still enrolled in effectuated QHPs as of May 31st, or a 17.1% net attrition rate from the official OE3 total. This is a higher drop-off rate than last year's national rate (nationally, exchange QHPs had dropped 13% by 3/31/15 and 15% by 6/30/15).