UPDATE: Colorado: April effectuated report is out, but...

Last month I noted that, assuming I was reading Connect for Health Colorado's monthly dashboard report correctly, they were down to 115,890 effectuated exchange enrollees as of 3/31/16, or a whopping 23.1% lower than the official APTC report tally of 150,769 QHP selections as of the end of Open Enrollment.

Over the weekend, they released their April dashboard report, and the numbers are actually up slightly...which means that while the net drop compared to the OE3 number is still steep, it's also spread out over a 3 month period instead of 2:

Adding together the effectuated enrollments with and without APTC adds up to 116,466, or 576 more people than in March. It's important to note that the footnote clearly states that "adding Effectuated enrollments with and without APTC/CSR will NOT sum to the "Effectuated Enrollments" line above because an enrollment could begin in one category (e.g., with APTC) and then later change to another (e.g., without APTC) and would be counted in both categories." In other words, there could be some overlap here. On the other hand, the "effectuated enrollments" number is actually higher than the "overlapping" combined number (121,962), so I'm not sure what else to do here.

Assuming 116,466 is the correct number for 4/30/16, that's a 22.8% net drop since the end of January.

UPDATE: Crud. As pointed out by Larwit1512 in the comments, this is not the correct "effectuated QHP" number for April after all, since it's the cumulative number (which will only increase throughout the year).

The 121,962 number at the top seems to be the one I want...except that it also includes SHOP and standalone Dental enrollments (I think). Here's the relevant footnotes:

• Effectuated Enrollments (121,962): Individuals / Employees / Dependents whose Individual or Small Business (SHOP) Marketplace enrollment has been submitted to the Carrier and the Carrier has acknowledged an active enrollment (the customer paid their first month premiums). Includes those who Effectuated in the current plan year and later terminated a policy.

• Effectuated Enrollments With APTC/CSR (Medical): All cumulative Effectuated enrollments for the Individual Marketplace that either have APTC and/or CSR. Includes Medical only.

• Effectuated Enrollments Without APTC/CSR (Medical): All cumulative Effectuated enrollments for the Individual Marketplace that either have neither APTC nor CSR. Includes Medical only. Note, adding Effectuated enrollments with and without APTC/CSR will NOT sum to the "Effectuated Enrollments" line above because an enrollment could begin in one category (e.g., with APTC) and then later change to another (e.g., without APTC) and would be counted in both categories.

OK, so 121,962 includes SHOP, which has a maximum tally of 2,897, which means that the effectuated number as of 4/30/16 could be as low as 119,065...except that "Individual" could also potentially include standalone dental plans, confusing the issue further. Even worse, it says that this "Includes those who effectuated in the current plan year and later terminated a policy".

I can't tell whether that means that those who terminated their policies have been subtracted from the total (accounted for) or if they're included in the total (cumulative).

Either way, this is still confusing as hell. I've requested clarification.

UPDATE x2: OK, I've heard back from the exchange; they said that they're having some technical delay issues with the effectuation data, but believe that it will still end up being between 80-90% once it's straightened out. I'm not sure if this is compared against the official OE3 number as of the end of March, but if so, that would put them in the range that I'm expecting nationally.