Rhode Island: Hmm...net gain of 1,700 QHPs, up to 33.5K total

Aside from HealthCare.Gov itself, the Rhode Island exchange is the only state-based exchange which provides weekly updates on a consistent basis. In addition, RI's updates cover the exact same 7-day periods as HC.gov's Snapshot reports, so they can often act as a bit of a harbinger of the larger report to come the following day. However, RI is also a tiny state with an even tinier ACA exchange population, in the 30K - 40K range, so it may be pointless to try and extrapolate nationally.

Having said that, their latest enrollment update, covering Week 12 of OE3, is...OK, I guess:

As of January 23, 2016:

  • 33,506 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, paid and unpaid.*
  • The majority of these individuals are 2015 HSRI enrollees that were auto-renewed into a 2016 plan.
  • 6,468 of the 33,506 individuals have selected a plan for 2016 coverage, and are new to HSRI this year or returning after being enrolled with HSRI at some point during a prior year.

31,044 of the 33,506 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, and have paid their first month’s premium.

*Individuals who selected plans for January 2016 coverage but did not make a payment were cancelled after the passage of the payment deadline, causing a decrease to the unpaid enrollment count in the first week of January.

That's a net gain of 1,712 QHP selections during the week, which is actually down slightly from 1,779 the week before. This is a bit worrying for two reasons: First, things should have started ramping up for the final deadline last week; second, because RI is one of 3 states which had a later deadline for February coverage (1/23 instead of 1/15). For both reasons, the numbers should have been higher than the week before.

On the other hand, Rhode Island is also doing the "pre-purging" thing with cancelled accounts, so I have no idea how much the number has been lopped down by.

Assuming this does extrapolate nationally, HC.gov should come in with either a mere 150K QHPs or around 400K for Week 12...depending on how the "Purge Factor" comes into play nationally.

If HC.gov Week 12 comes in at around 400K, my revised 14.0 million final national projection remains. If, however, it comes in at around 150K (without a significant "purge factor" dropping it to that), then there's likely to be little in the way of a "final surge" at all, in which case we might not even hit 13 million, which would be quite a shock to me.

Anyway, this brings Rhode Island back up to 93% of my 36K target for the state, with one week left to go. It's also worth noting that over 31K of those 33.5K people are fully enrolled and have paid their first monthly premium so far.