HC.gov Week Six Projection: 1.50 Million QHPs (4.34 Million Cumulative)

As expected, the December Surge started in Week 5, and should really be taking off even as I type this on Wednesday of Week 6. I overshot a bit this time:

  • Week 5 Projection: 840K / Actual: 804K (over by 4.4%)
  • Cumulative Projection: 2.88M / Actual: 2.84M (over by 1.2%)

I'm sticking to my guns for Week 6, projecting an even 1.5 million QHP selections via HealthCare.Gov, bringing the grand total to 4.34 million as of 12/12.

REMEMBER, as always, that this only includes the 38 states included on the federal exchange; when you throw in the other 13 running their own exchanges, the grand total by the 12th should be roughly 5.76 million QHPs nationally.

Here's what I expect The Graph to look like through then: