NOW LIVE: My Official 2016 Open Enrollment Exchange Projection!
This year, through special arrangements with them, I've posted my 2016 exchange QHP selection projection exclusively at a different website...healthinsurance.org, where I've been writing occasional freelance pieces.
I've promised not to reveal the actual number anywhere else until tomorrow, so you'll have to read the full piece to get my call...but I do have some important caveats, disclaimers and additional points which I can make here as well:
- FIRST: As always I could very well be wrong. Remember, I don't have any particular expertise (beyond the 2 years I've been doing this so far) or inside info. All I have is my track record, which has been pretty damned good for the most part. On the other hand, this year will have dramatically different challenges than either 2014 or 2015 did, so...
- SECOND: Yes, I'm well aware that the HHS Dept. just announced their 2016 enrollment target a few hours ago, but no, I did not use their report to come up with mine. Any similarities (or differences) in methodology or logic were arrived at completely independently.
- THIRD: It's important, when looking at either the HHS Dept's or my own projections, to distinguish between how many people are expected to select a private policy during open enrollment vs. how many are expected to still be enrolled by the end of the year.
- In the case of HHS's projection, they're expecting anywhere from 11.0 - 14.1 million people to select private policies during open enrollment...but only expect between 9.4 - 11.4 million to still be enrolled by the end of 2016. For marketing purposes, they're taking the mid-range and promoting a flat 10.0 Million by the end of next year.
- In my case...well, you'll just have to visit healthinsurance.org to find out.
- While I've given healthinsurance.org a one-day exclusive on my main projection piece, I will obviously be writing a lot more about it here in the coming days, including any variances between HHS and my own targets, state-level projections, my own methodology and other issues. I'll also be posting a rough graph of how I expect things to play out during #OE3, to see if I prove to be accurate not just on the total number but the flow of enrollments/renewals and so on.
UPDATE 10/16/15: To reiterate, I'll be "showing my work" here later on today.