2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

Time: D H M S

UPDATED: BOOM: CMS confirms 944K HC.gov QHP selections from 2/23 - 6/30

Some Guy, July 29th:

Assuming my ballpark estimate of appx. 7,500 Off-Season QHP Selections Per Day is accurate, the grand total nationally should be breaking the 13 million milestone right about...now-ish (or at least sometime this week).

Some Guy, 10:45am this morning:

#ACASignups I'm pretty sure QHP selections just broke 13.1 million nationally: http://t.co/lNqkAw6WsX #ACA #Obamacare pic.twitter.com/U0fD2mTuMT

— Charles Gaba (@charles_gaba) August 13, 2015

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid, 1:25pm today:

2015 Special Enrollment Period Report – February 23 – June 30, 2015

The next open enrollment period for Marketplace coverage begins on November 1, 2015 for coverage starting on January 1, 2016. Some people can sign up for health coverage outside of open enrollment, before November 1, because they qualify for a special enrollment period (SEP). A consumer can qualify for a SEP for such circumstances as loss of health coverage, losing Medicaid eligibility, changes in family status (for example, marriage or birth of a child), or other exceptional circumstances.

This snapshot provides information about consumers who selected a plan between February 23 and June 30, 2015 through the HealthCare.gov platform, which includes 37 states with Federally Facilitated Marketplaces, State Partnership Marketplaces, and supported State-Based Marketplaces.

Nearly 950,000 new consumers selected a plan through the HealthCare.gov platform using a SEP between February 23 and June 30, 2015.

Yes, that's right: With this morning's updates from Minnesota and Massachusetts thrown in, the confirmed total number of QHP selections nationally now stands at at least 13,056,955 to date...vs. my estimate of 13.1 million, or just 43,000 shy of where I projected.

To be fair, it's actually even better than that: Today's CMS report for Healthcare.Gov only runs through June 30, which means it doesn't include the likely 230,000 additional people who have selected QHPs since then (assuming roughly 5,700 per day on Healthcare.Gov). In other words, the off-season daily average, which I've been estimating at around 7,500/day nationally, is probably more like 8,000/day or higher.

UPDATE: It turns out that 143,707 of these are due to the Tax Filing Season special enrollment period. Since I already had 147K included in my estimates prior to today, I have to subtract 147K from the grand total, bringing the grand total down to around 12.9 million (12,909,955).

Here's the irony, however: This total was still as of June 30. When you subtract the Tax Season enrollments from the 944K total, it's 800,227. Divide that by the 128 days between 2/23 - 6/30 and you have 6,250 per day for Healthcare.Gov (ie, this doesn't include the state-based exchanges).

Assuming off-season SEP enrollment continued at this pace throughout July and into August (7/01 - 7/13), that's another 275,000 from HC.gov alone. Normally I'd have to add the state-based exchange enrollment to this, but those have mostly already been accounted for.

In other words, the grand total as of today (August 13) almost certainly is at least 13.1 million after all, and could be as high as 13.3 million.