2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

Time: D H M S

New Jersey: 2016 weighted avg. rate requests: 10.2% likely, 11.7% maximum

IMPORTANT: See this detailed explanation of how I've come up with the following estimated maximum weighted average rate increase request for New Jersey

Assuming you've read through the explanation linked to above, here's my best estimate of the maximum possible and most likely average rate increase requests for the New Jersey individual market:

Again, the full explanation is included in the Missouri estimate, but to the best of my knowledge, it looks like the companies requesting rate increases higher than 10% come in at a weighted 13.4% increase, but only make up about 50% of the total ACA-compliant individual market, with several other companies (Oscar, AmeriHealth & possibly other off-exchange only companies) requesting increases of less than 10% (or possibly even decreases in some cases) and making up the other half.

Assuming this is accurate, the worst-case scenario for New Jersey would be around a 11.7% weighted average rate hike. The "missing" companies likely range from 0 - 9.9%, so the more likely average is around 10.2%.

As noted repeatedly in the explanation, the total market size could be higher (but is unlikely to be lower), while the <10% average could be lower than that. Either of these should result in the overall weighted average being lower than the percentages shown.