Humana's SEC filing lends insight into ACA exchange/off-exchange/non-compliant policies

Humana Group is one of the largest health insurance companies in the country. As such, their enrollment data being made available is extremely helpful in seeing where things stand and how they've changed nationally.

Today, Bob Herman of Modern Healthcare provided me with a link to Humana's latest SEC filing. In addition to a whole mess of financial info which is of little interest to me, there's also all sorts of year-over-year data about their enrollment numbers...including a very handy section about their individual market, broken out by ACA exchange-based, Off Exchange and even their non-ACA compliant enrollments (ie, "grandfathered" and/or "transitional" enrollees).

Here's the key section:

Unfortunately, it's not broken out by state, but this is still very helpful. As you can see, 65% of Humana's total individual enrollments are now via either Healthcare.Gov or one of the state-based ACA exchanges. Another 20% are off-exchange but fully ACA-compliant. The remaining 15% are "legacy" policies.

The "transitional" policies should be wiped out by the end of 2016, leaving perhaps a few hundred thousand "grandfathered" enrollments which will quietly fade away as those enrolled in them either age into Medicare, gain other forms of coverage via employment/etc or, frankly, literally die off.

I don't think Humana's ratios are representative nationally, however. If it was, then the entire 2015 individual market would only be around 16 million even (10.4 million exchange-based, 3.2 million off-exchange, 2.4 million legacy), when the other evidence I've seen so far strongly suggests that it's closer to 19 million, with a ratio closer to 54% / 37% / 9% (10.4M exchange, 7M off-exchange, 1.6M legacy), give or take.

Still, the key takeaway here is that the "legacy" enrollments dropped by over 52% from December 2013 to December 2014 (year one) and another 52% of that in just the first 6 months of 2015. Grandfathered/transitional enrollments are down to 157,100 people for Humana as of now.