GRAHAM-CASSIDY REPEAL BILL DEADLINE:

Time: D H M S

Oregon: 220.5K TOTAL QHPs (On + Off-Exchange), up 5K since 2/22

OK, this was an unexpected update:

Here's which health insurers lost or gained market share in Oregon this year

The numbers are in: It appears that Oregon consumers were fairly price sensitive when it came to choosing health plans this year.

LifeWise had the lowest rates, at $222 a month for a 40-year-old Portlander on a silver plan. Probably not coincidentally, it more than doubled its individual membership in plans that comply with Affordable Care Act guidelines.

As of March 31, LifeWise has nearly 37,000 members in ACA-compliant plans, up from 4,735 last year, according to the Oregon Insurance Division.

The article goes on to tally every single one of Oregon's individual policy QHP enrollees. The bad news is that they don't break them out by exchange vs. off-exchange. The good news is that they specifically clarify that these are all ACA compliant policies (ie, no "grandfathered" or "transitional" numbers included):

The most recent numbers cover only those plans that are ACA-compliant. There are still consumers on non-compliant plans, but those policies will go away at the end of this year.

When you add them all up, the grand total is 220,514 (in a few cases they rounded off to "around 16,000" but others were exact). The date given is "as of 3/31", so presumably these don't include those whose policies didn't kick off until April 1st.

OK, so that's 220.5K, on + off exchange combined. How's this compare with the prior numbers?

Well, the most recent tally from the Oregon Insurance Division had it at 113,219 via Healthcare.Gov and another 102,232 off-exchange QHPs, for a total of 215,451​ as of 2/22/15.

That means that combined QHPs have gone up another 5,063 since February 22nd. In Oregon's case, iI'm assuming that the on/off ratios have remained steady (with exchange-based making up around 53% of the total), which means this should break out to around 2,660 more via HC.gov + another 2,400 off-exchange, for totals of around 116,000 and 104,500 respectively.

While I don't know the exact breakout between the two, this does provide some guidance about the overall off-season enrollments. I've estimated that the QHP selection total went up around 319K between 2/22 - 3/31, or around 2.7%. In Oregon, at least, it went up around 2.35% by 3/31, so it looks like I'm at least in the ballpark here.