Sorry, Gov. Snyder: Michigan's ACA Medicaid expansion declares itself Emperor, swallows entire state whole

Back in December, I noted that Michigan's implementation of the ACA's Medicaid expansion provision had achieved an impressive 99.4% of it's theoretical maximum enrollment. Official state administration estimates pegged the number of Michiganders eligible for the program at around 477,000, and as of 12/08/14, enrollment had hit 474K.

Other estimates had Michigan's eligible population as being higher--perhaps 500,000, so I didn't think too much of it at the time. Besides, population shifts, changes in the economy and so forth could mean that an estimate from last spring had shifted up or down a bit.

Even so, as the official enrollment total broke 500K, then 510K, then 530K, I noted each increase, with increasing curiosity about the discrepancy.

That brings me to last Monday:

Healthy Michigan Plan Enrollment Statistics

Beneficiaries with Healthy Michigan Plan Coverage: 573,488
(Includes beneficiaries enrolled in health plans and beneficiaries not required to enroll in a health plan.)

*Statistics as of February 23, 2015 
*Updated every Monday at 3 p.m.

That's 20% higher than the Snyder administration's estimate from last spring (and remember, this is a completely Republican-run state at the moment), and 15% higher than the higher 3rd-party estimate.

I don't know what to make of this, but at this rate, the Healthy Michigan program will have enrolled the entire state by 2030, for good or for bad.