Final Call for the Heck of It: 11.9M by midnight, 12.4-12.5M by 2/28

This morning, in light of yesterday's major income verification outage at the IRS, HHS Sec. Burwell's comments from the other day, the massive snowstorm impact in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and DC, and a series of "waiting in line" extension period announcements by various state exchanges, I revised my QHP selection projections:

  • 11.7 - 12.0 million by midnight tonight (EST)
  • 12.2 - 12.5 million by 2/28 (that's the final "waiting in line" date given by New York)

Since I'm not a big fan of "ranges", I'm going to pin down my final call more closely:

  • 11.9 million by midnight Eastern
  • 12.4 - 12.5 million by 2/28, and for good measure...
  • 9.5 million via Healthcare.Gov +  3.0 million via the state exchanges