Colorado: 128K QHPs thru 2/09...or 2/02??
2018 MIDTERM ELECTION
Time: D H M S
The last official update out of Connect for Health Colorado had the QHP tally at 125,378 as of 1/31.
As of last Monday, Colorado reported 128,000 enrollments in 2015. About three-fourths of those are returning customers , with about a fourth being new customers.
OK, so that's an increase of around 2,622. However, the "...as of last Monday" bit is confusing. To me, saying "last Monday" on a Friday refers to the prior Monday (ie, 2/02 in this case). However, that would suggest that CO enrolled over 1,300 per day for 2 days in a row. The state was only averaging 233/day over the prior couple of weeks, which means they'd have to have ramped up over 5.5x, which is possible (a few other states have pulled this off).
On the other hand, if "...last Monday" refers to February 9th (just 4 days prior to the story being published), that would mean around 291/day, which is a much more realistic ramp-up (about 25%) for the first 9 days of February.
Unless I receive clarification otherwise, I'm going to play this cautiously and assume that "last Monday" actually means the 9th, not the 2nd.
In that case, Colorado only has 6 days to enroll 66,000 people to reach their official target of 194K. There's no way they'll hit 11K/day, which is why I've already lowered my projection for them to 160K.
If I'm correct about 128K being through 2/09, that means they'd have to add 5,300/day for the final 6 days, which still sounds unreachable to me.
If I'm wrong, and 2/02 really was the date referred to, they'd have 13 days left, at 2,460/day, which sounds doable.