Maryland breaks 100K QHPs milestone; on track to easily break my INCREASED projection

A couple of weeks ago, Maryland blew past the HHS Dept's target for the state (88K QHPs) and hit 94K as of 1/22. I noted that they were on their way towards easily hitting my personal, higher target of 105K by 2/15.

In response, a few days ago I went through all 50 states (+DC) and adjusted my own projections, lowering them in 9 states while bumping them up in 26 others, including Maryland. I tacked another 10K onto MD to 115,000 QHP selections. (Note that I'm leaving my original projections in the actual spreadsheets to avoid confusion; the revisions are more just to confirm that I recognized where the trendlines would be and where my earlier logic fails were).

Just now, the MD exchange announced that they've already broken the 100K QHP mark:

As of Feb. 4., 211,430 Marylanders have enrolled in quality, affordable health coverage for calendar year 2015, since the 90-day open enrollment period began Nov. 15. That includes 100,547 people enrolled in private Qualified Health Plans (QHP) and 110,883 people enrolled in Medicaid. Marylanders can enroll or re-enroll by Feb. 15 for coverage effective March 1 and, if eligible, for an Advanced Premium Tax Credit (APTC) to immediately lower their monthly insurance bills. Open enrollment for Maryland Health Connection ends Feb. 15.

That means they have 11 days to add 14,453 more QHPs...or about 1,300 per day.

For comparison, from 1/12 - 2/04, Maryland added 6,741...or 518 per day. Considering that this was one of the slowest stretches of the enrollment period, I see no reason why they can't ramp up to 2.5x that daily rate for the final push. 120K is quite possible at this point, possibly even 125K or higher.

Meanwhile, they've also added about 111K Medicaid enrollees. Including 2014, their cumulative exchange-based Medicaid enrollment is over 291K, but the net increase over pre-expansion is 242K due to normal churn:

As of Feb. 4, the total number of Medicaid and MCHP enrollment is 1,283,742. Compared to Dec. 31, 2013, the net change in Medicaid enrollment as of Feb. 4, 2015 is +242,112. This figure takes into account that individuals lose Medicaid coverage because of changes in household, age and income, as well as redeterminations.