At least 33 States have reached HHS Goal for 2015 with 25 days to go (with bar-charty goodness!)
Wed, 01/21/2015 - 2:43pm
With the release of the latest data from HC.gov less than an hour ago, here's where things stand:
- At least 33 states have now reached the "official" 2015 QHP enrollment target laid out for them by either the HHS Dept (10.4 million nationally) or, in some cases, individual state governments/exchanges. Again, this means roughly 30% more enrollees than the April 19, 2014 total, but in some cases it's higher or lower (for instance, Florida only targeted enrolling about 9% more people this year than last, while New York is hoping to nearly double their 2014 total...and Massachusetts is a whole different game).
- Another 6 states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, Ohio, Tennesse, Texas and Wisconsin) are all within striking distance (90%+) of HHS's target; all should easily break through over the next 3 1/2 weeks.
- The states which are lagging include Colorado, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington State, which are all below 75% of the HHS/official goal as of their most recent update. Bear in mind, however, that some of these states are missing more data than the other states, so they may have made up some ground since the number shown.
- Of course, as I and other ACA reporters have noted, the HHS Dept. was almost certainly lowballing their target this year, after all the fuss made last year over the CBO's "7 Million" number, which took on an almost mystical quality. Therefore, I'm also happy to report that two states (Alaska and Hawaii) have reached 100% of my personal targets. Hawaii, in fact, is doing better than I would've figured; they're already 24% higher than I was expecting! Of course the number itself is still very small (16.1K vs. 13K), but still, kudos to them for getting their act together this year.
- Similarly, there are another 9 states (Arizona, Delaware, DC, Maine, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Virginia and Wyoming) which have broken 90% of my own target numbers, and should have no issues reaching 100%.
- Finally, don't forget that neither California nor New York have yet provided any 2014 renewal data, meaning that both states are severely misrepresented on both the table and chart below. There's likely another 960K in CA and 320K in NY which will be added at some point...
- Add 'em all up and there are now 8.28 million confirmed QHP selections for 2015 nationally. As of today, I'm pretty sure the actual number is closer to 9.7 million (1.3 million NY/CA renewals, plus another 120K or so scattered amongst all of the states).
- Nationally, QHP selections have now reached 80% of HHS's target of 10.4 million, or 66% (2/3) of my target (12.5 million) for the 2015 open enrollment period.
NOTE: Click image below for link to FULL-SIZE version.