Where Things Stand for 13 States
Taking a look at the QHP Spreadsheet, here's where things stand as of today (or at least as of the latest data provided by the exchanges to date).
It's impossible to know how close most of the HC.gov states (along with California, New York & Hawaii) are to their targets because the renewal/autorenewal data either hasn't been provided yet (CA, NY, HI) or has been provided but hasn't been broken out by state yet (35 of the states on HC.gov).
In most cases, the official government target is based on 30% above last spring's 8 million figure (10.4 million = 30% higher), but in some cases the state exchange itself has set the bar.
In my case, I'm generally assuming around 56% higher than last year, except for Massachusetts which is a special case (see below):
UPDATE 01/07/15: A few more states have updated their numbers so I've updated the table as well:
|State||Gov't Target||Reached||My Target||Reached|
*(Massachusetts has somewhere between 175K - 225K people in "temporary coverage" who mostly qualify for subsidized QHPs but were never able to make it through their old exchange; a straight +30% over last year's 32K would mean just 42,000 this year, but the state exchange expects somewhere around 200K. I shot even higher yet to a whopping 300K, which may have been overreaching just a tad but what the hell...)
**Nevada & Oregon are operating on the federal HC.gov exchange, but all enrollments this year are considered "new" for that reason--neither state is set up for automatic renewals, so whatever the number of 2015 enrollments is, that's all of them through that date.