END OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD (42 states)

Time: D H M S

No Updates Until Tuesday

I'm expecting a few major ACA-related announcements between now and Tuesday, including:

  • The first official Monthly HHS ASPE Report on ACA exchange enrollment (that is, the big, fat, 40-page detailed report with enrollments broken out by state, metal level, including both QHPs and Medicaid/CHIP and so on).
    This is the same type of report which HHS released once a month last year, and it's the official record for purposes of tracking enrollment. It should include all 50 states plus DC. However, I have no idea whether it will run:
    • November 15th through November 30th (ie, a partial calendar month, which wouldn't be particularly useful); if so, I'd expect around 930K QHPs via HC.gov and 1.24M total.
    • November 15th through December 15th (everything up through the enrollment deadline for January coverage in most states; this would be useful, but wouldn't include any autorenewals); if so, I'd expect around 3.52M QHPs via HC.gov and 4.70M QHPs total.
    • November 15th through December 19th (actually 5 full calendar weeks, which is what I'm guessing it'll include and which would be the most useful, since autorenewals for most states would be included). If so, HHS has already given the total as roughly 6.39M via HC.gov, and I'm estimating roughly 8.52M total (remember, my 8.65M estimate includes 4 extra days, through 12/23).
  • I'm also expecting press releases from Minnesota, Washington State and of course Massachusetts. Washington's should include their "deadline surge" day enrollments, and Massachusetts should be revealing how many of the 34,138 people who enrolled by their deadline but hadn't actually paid by then made their payment under the wire.
  • Otherwise, I'm hoping that both New York and California will provide their respective renewal numbers, which should be roughly 1.1 million (CA) and 310K (NY), give or take. CoveredCA said that they won't be giving out their renewal data until January, but I'm not sure how that will work since HHS is supposedly releasing a comprehensive monthly report next week. If there's a big blank spot under CA, then the report will have a huge hole of over a million people, making my estimates kind of pointless.

However, I won't be able to post about any of this, as I'll be unavailable for a few days due to a family commitment. I should be back sometime Tuesday evening, and of course I'll be posting about any developments which took place while I was gone.