2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

Time: D H M S

7,438,851 CONFIRMED QHP selections nationally; at least 6.M renewals / 6.3M total

Check the Spreadsheet.

6.4 million via Healthcare.Gov (37 states) + more than a million via the other 13 states (+DC) = 7,438,851 confirmed to date.

Note that this is only through 12/19 for most states, and that the January enrollment deadline still hasn't passed for 6 states (the deadline for MA & WA is today; for RI, VT, MN and HI it's not until New Year's Eve).

I'm still pouring over the numbers from the state exchanges (not a typo...I actually spilled hot chocolate near my keyboard...), but in terms of renewals, here's what it looks like so far (remember, there were around 6.7 million potential renewals to start with):

  • HC.gov: around 4.48 million renewed (1.70 million manually, 2.78 million automatically)
  • California: a bare minimum of 144K manual renewals (assuming a 1:1 ratio). Likely another 1 million renewals to be added (mostly automatic).
    Update: California ended up with 944K renewals total for 2015
  • Colorado: 89K renewals (manual + auto)
  • Connecticut: 66K (manual + auto)
  • DC: (unknown)
  • Hawaii (unknown)
  • Idaho (uknown)
  • Kentucky: 76K (manual + auto)
  • Maryland: (unknown; special case)
  • Massachusetts: (unknown; special case)
  • Minnesota: at least 10K renewals total
  • New York: a bare minimum of 68K manual renewals (assuming a 1:1 ratio). Likely another 280K renewals to be added (mostly automatic).
  • Rhode Island: 10K renewals (all manual)
  • Vermont: 22K renewals (manual + auto)
  • Washington State: 46K manual renewals

TOTAL: A bare minimum of 5.0 million renewals out of 6.7 million total; add another 800K autorenewals in CA and 250K in NY and you're up to at least 6.05 million. Throw in another 150K or so from DC, HI, ID, MD & MN and that's around 6.1 million who have/will be renewed/re-enrolled out of 6.3 million total.

In other words, easily 200K more than I thought (6.1 million) and 500K more than HHS publicly projected (5.8 million).