START OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD

Time: D H M S

UPDATED WITH FINAL AVERAGE: Coming in 2015: The Incredible Shrinking Premium Increase

March 19, 2014:

Health industry officials say ObamaCare-related premiums will double in some parts of the country, countering claims recently made by the administration.

The expected rate hikes will be announced in the coming months amid an intense election year, when control of the Senate is up for grabs. The sticker shock would likely bolster the GOP’s prospects in November and hamper ObamaCare insurance enrollment efforts in 2015.

...The insurance official, who hails from a populous swing state, said his company expects to triple its rates next year on the ObamaCare exchange. 

May 15, 2014:

First Obamacare Premium Notices For 2015 Show Double Digit Increases

The first Obamacare rate increases for 2015 have been posted on-line. The figures come from two states, Washington State and Virginia, which posted the proposed rate increases for their exchanges on-line. In Washington State, the enrollment-weighted average rate increase is 9.6%. In Virginia, it’s 11.7%.

August 12, 2014:

...The average national increase of 7.5 percent is “well below the double-digit increases many feared,” [PwC] HRI Managing Director Ceci Connolly wrote in ane-mail.

Needless to say, this is quite a bit different than the scenario the Hill laid out in March. A 7.5 percent average increase is somewhat smaller than the 100 percent increase the newspaper was predicting only five months ago.

The only caveat here is that the 7.5% average only covers 27 states; according to PwC researcher Caitlin Sweany, the overall average is actually a bit higher:

New updates to our 2015 health insurance premium map. Avg increase is now 8.2%.http://t.co/Si3vj2nWi3

— Caitlin Sweany (@caitlinsweany) August 12, 2014

October 7, 2014:

...As of September 25, 2014, six states—Colorado, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Oregon, and Rhode Island—as well as the District of Columbia have announced approved rates for both on-exchange and off-exchangehealth plans on the individual market. In total, HRI has collected premium data from 38 states and the District of Columbia.

Among the six states and DC with final rate announcements, the average premium (across metal tiers and ages) is about $327, and the average premium increase from 2014 is 2.5%. By contrast, the average premium increase across all reporting states is 6.0% and the average premium is $382.

October 12, 2014:

As of October 3, 2014, six states—Colorado, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Oregon, and Rhode Island—as well as the District of Columbia have announced approved rates for both on-exchange and off-exchange health plans on the individual market. In total, HRI has collected premium data from 40 states and the District of Columbia.

Among the six states and DC with final rate announcements, the average premium (across metal tiers and ages) is about $328, and the average premium increase from 2014 is 2.6%. By contrast, the average premium increase across all reporting states is 5.9% and the average premium is $382.

Hmmm. Somehow we've gone from "double to triple" increases in March (let's split the difference and go with a 125% increase projection) to "double digits" (let's call it 15%) in May to 8.2% in August to 6.0% in September to 5.9% in October...and finally, to just 5.6% in the end:

As open enrollment for the second year of the Affordable Care Act’s health coverage expansion begins, a clearer picture of 2015 health insurance rates has emerged.  As of November 4, 2014, seven states—Colorado, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont—as well as the District of Columbia announced approved rates for both on-exchange and off-exchange health plans on the individual market. In total, HRI has collected premium data from 43 states and the District of Columbia.

Among the seven states and DC with final rate announcements, the average premium (across metal tiers and ages) is about $344, and the average premium increase from 2014 is 3.5%. By contrast, the average premium increase across all reporting states is 5.6%, and the average premium is $381.

Just for fun, I decided to chart this (hey, everyone likes charts, right?):