END OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD (42 states)

Time: D H M S

Here's why my "9K per day" off-season QHP estimate isn't outlandish at all

Hat Tip To: 
Bob H.

On the one hand, aside from a brief panic attack I had the week after Independence Day, I've consistently been confident that my 8,000 - 10,000/day estimate for off-season QHP enrollments is solid. With 7 months from 4/15 - 11/15, that's anywhere from 1.7 - 2.1 million people enrolling in exchange-based QHPs in addition to the 8.02 million who had done so as of mid-April.

On the other hand, even the minimal off-season data that I've been able to cobble together has nearly dried up in the past few weeks; only 4 states have been posting regular updates since April, and 2 of them (Hawaii and Oregon) haven't done so in several weeks as they overhaul/retool their websites. This leaves just Minnesota (with nearly daily updates, hooray!) and Maryland (which only released reports monthly, but has been reliable about doing so); pretty slim pickings of late, so it's reassuring to see that my claims are more than reasonable:

Almost 7 million people can sign up for health plans under ObamaCare even before the new enrollment period begins in November, according to an advocacy group.

Enroll America, an ObamaCare enrollment group with close ties to the White House, said Wednesday that millions of adults are eligible to sign up for insurance before Nov. 15 because they have moved, gotten married, had children, lost insurance or become American citizens.

...The group analyzed U.S. Census Bureau data from 2010 to 2012 and found almost 2.7 million uninsured people and 4 million people who are likely to lose insurance have a qualifying life event that would make them eligible for the special enrollment period.

In other words, Enroll America believes that there's roughly 6.7 million people out there who could be enrolling right now, between April and November. My 9K/day estimate is less than 30% of that number.

Of course, I also estimate that around 10% of those folks never end up paying for their first month's premium, and another 15% or so are replacing their exchange policies for other coverage after a few months, but that's a separate discussion.