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Minnesota back in gear! Exchange QHPs up another 467 in 11 days

Yup, it definitely looks like my "QHP sky is falling" warning from a couple of weeks back was a false alarm...or, as Dan Diamond noted at the time...

The first time @charles_gaba made a forecasting error was when he predicted he made a mistake. http://t.co/4hiufhbVAG

— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) July 16, 2014

Indeed.

In any event, while there is indeed a small slowdown which seems to have kicked in since the COBRA extensions dropped out at the end of June, it's now looking more and more as though the huge drop I saw the first week of July was mainly a combination of a data entry error in Hawaii and the long 4th of July weekend in general.

The latest evidence of this can be found in Minnesota, which has indeed bounced back. The state is way off their June QHP rate of around 41/day for all of July, but it's now looking like they'll come in at around 21/day (and, in fact, even higher than June at 42/day over the past 11 days) instead of the 1-2/day that I feared earlier this month:

July 27, 2014

Health Coverage Type Total Enrollments 
Medical Assistance 161,631
MinnesotaCare 58,509

Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 52,792
TOTAL 272,932

Meanwhile, they've also added another 8,167 people to Medicaid during that same 11 day stretch.