Oregon: Latest numbers confirm it: My freakout last week was premature; gross QHPs back up to 200/day

Hat Tip To: 
deaconblues

VERY interesting news out of Oregon. On the one hand, the gross QHP enrollment figure, which had been cut in half from 300/day down to 156/day is back up to over 200/day, right in line with the rebounds from Hawaii and Minnesota!

On the other hand, unlike last week when the net enrollment figure dropped from 280/day down to a measely 10 in an entire week, the number today is actually lower than it was a week ago!

July 14 NET enrollments: 82,637; July 21 NET enrollments: 82,183...a drop of 454 people.

July 21, 2014

Update: Private coverage and Oregon Health Plan enrollment through Cover Oregon

Medical enrollments through Cover Oregon: 322,707
Total private medical insurance enrollments through Cover Oregon 1: 95,115 
Oregon Health Plan enrollments through Cover Oregon: 227,592

Net private medical: 82,183

So, what's going on here? Well, it looks to me like the key is in the footnote at the bottom of the Cover Oregon site:

Net numbers are enrollments remaining in the system on this date after cancellations and terminations.

Please note also that these are estimated enrollments and throughout the year there will be a constant process of reconciliations.

Until now I was assuming that "cancellations and terminations" simply meant the "First Month Paid" number. However, it appears that it also means people who do indeed cancel their policies after the first month...the "attrition" factor which I've written about before, as people gain jobs, marry people with coverage, age into Medicare and so forth.

If that's the case...and it would have to be or the number wouldn't be lower than the prior one...then that means that I have to look at the gross numbers in order to get a bead on the rate of new enrollments in Oregon, even if the net number is more accurate for the current state of affairs.

Either way, just like with Hawaii and Minnesota, it now appears that my "OMG!!! 9K/day down to 1K/day!!!" freakout last week was indeed premature. Yes, the end of COBRA benefits has resulted in a slowdown of enrollments, but it's not nearly as massive as I thought it was at first. In fact, it's even possible that the long July 4th holiday weekend was partly to blame. Who knows?