2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

Time: D H M S

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell has 7,593 more people to explain himself to.

Hat Tip To: 
deaconblues

This isn't an official update; it doesn't give an exact number, and there's no QHP/Medicaid breakout, but it's better than nothing:

WASHINGTON – Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear charged Tuesday that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other critics of the federal health care law are being "disingenuous," attempting to be for a state program that is no different from Obamacare.

The governor called the state health care exchange known as kynect "highly successful," enrolling 421,000 Kentuckians — with 75 percent of them receiving coverage for the first time in their lives.

The final enrollment period breakdown was 82,792 QHPs and 330,615 Medicaid enrollees, or 413,407 total, so this represents an increase since 4/19 of 7,593 total.

If we were still in the open enrollment period, of course, I'd just use the same 20/80 ratio that the existing numbers suggest, but since we're in the "off season" for QHPs this is trickier. I'll assume a 10/90 ratio until I hear otherwise, which would mean that KY's QHP total is now up by 759 and Medicaid is up 6,834.

On the other hand, if my previous estimate of off-season QHP enrollment running at around 25% that of the open enrollment period held true for Kentucky, it would be vastly shifted the other way; KY was averaging around 410 QHPs per day, so that would mean about 100/day now, or around 5,600 QHPs and another 1,993 added to Medicaid. This doesn't sound likely...unless the state did such a great job of adding people to Medicaid already that pretty much everyone who qualifies has already been added. This may sound crazy...but according to KFF.org, the total number of people in KY eligible for Medicaid who weren't already on it stood at around 350K to begin with, and they'd already added 331K, so who knows?

Either way that's 7,593 more people Mitch McConnell is threatening to screw over if his obsession with overturning the ACA were to come through.

On the other hand, it looks like I overestimated the additional enrollments since 4/19 (I assumed it would be a lot more than 7,600). With 75% of these previously uninsured (5,700), that means that KY has had their uninsured rate drop by 316K out of 640K...or "only" by 49.4% instead of the 53% I previously suggested might be possible. Not that this makes my "cut in half!" headline any less accurate, but it's a bit irksome to be off by that much :)